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Pattern Fabulous February

SD said:
Its not that far off though on the front end for our area. This type of setup favors a brief period of wintry weather on at onset especially in the NW Piedmont then sitting in the wedge doldrums for infinity.

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Yeah, I agree. Still plenty of time for things to move around a bit more favorably. You can see that in the variety of solutions printed out today.
 
GaWx said:
Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
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Hopefully, they will begin to trend in that direction. We've seen some good signals show and then go up in smoke. Maybe, the I'm Out call was just what the doctor ordered. If it works like the Weeklies contest and the daily stock market challenge, then buckle up!
 
Somehow Johnson City TN will squeeze out a solid event in the next 10 days. February has been good to those guys so far. Atmospheric memory is real
 
Only reason we haven’t been favorable is because MJO has been in the unfavorable phases ... once they get into 8,1,2 very soon things will flip quicker than u can say FLIP
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Only reason we haven’t been favorable is because MJO has been in the unfavorable phases ... once they get into 8,1,2 very soon things will flip quicker than u can say FLIP
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I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
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Heck of a lot better than being in the warm phases regardless
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I agree. Still plenty of time for things to move around a bit more favorably. You can see that in the variety of solutions printed out today.
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What's disappointing is this is another setup this year that isn't that far off but probably won't produce. We start seeing some blocking getting started over the Davis Strait region over the next 5 days but the wheels fall off shortly afterward. Had we developed a true block in that region we would probably have a winter storm for parts of the SE even with a crappy pacific

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I think we needed 8,1,2 a month ago when the MJO was the main driver. I’ll still take my chances with those phases now but I’m afraid our ship has sailed. Too late to maximize our benefits from those cold phases
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So if those cold phases are no good now, they will probably stay in the 8,1,2 phases!?
Shouldn’t some of the other phase be cold and snowy in Feb then!? I mean should we be wanting a 5, when sucked last month, it’s good now?? Or is our timing just that perfect??
 
GaWx said:
Thank you, Kevin O'Leary. Meanwhile, both the 12Z GEFS and EPS have a building impessive +PNA late in their runs. Are these to be believed this time? Or is this still another mirage? They look dam good but is this just more kayfabe?
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That works out with the time frame i was noting in my previous posts. I think it’s real, many globals and sub seasonals hinting at the same period. Just need to see it stick. I think we salvage the last week of Feb. if it produces, that’s another question....but the -PNA/-EPO couplet will be history late month, imo of course.


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Tarheel1 said:
So if those cold phases are no good now, they will probably stay in the 8,1,2 phases!?
Shouldn’t some of the other phase be cold and snowy in Feb then!? I mean should we be wanting a 5, when sucked last month, it’s good now?? Or is our timing just that perfect??
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Wish I knew more about it Mack. We’re entering spring where 8’s are 5’s and blocks only block hot air from leaving. Maybe the MJO is just less of a driving force as earth begins to tilt back into northern hemisphere summer position? Tropical forcing can only add so much heat to a latitude tilting back towards the equator? Maybe the warm phases in spring are like throwing a burning log into an already raging fire. Maybe cold phases in spring are like throwing a water balloon onto a raging fire
 
SD said:
What's disappointing is this is another setup this year that isn't that far off but probably won't produce. We start seeing some blocking getting started over the Davis Strait region over the next 5 days but the wheels fall off shortly afterward. Had we developed a true block in that region we would probably have a winter storm for parts of the SE even with a crappy pacific

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Yep, that's true. I don't know whether or not the blocking showing up and then knocking back is a product of what the models are doing with the MJO. They pretty much all progress it for a bit, and then either stall/weaken it or back-track it, before resuming forward pace again. I kind of still don't think it happens like that. I think it might slow a bit and then go...kind of like what the Euro shows. But you're right. A block in place would have done wonders. Maybe we still have time to get one going before the entirety of the season is spent.
 
Weaker ser and a stronger storm around the NE, oh yeah also a taller western ridge, hmm 9911B790-93C9-4150-87B1-BBFBF6D2103E.gif
 
f7ff933d0bbf9075af15893005922024.jpg



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