Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

[GaWx]

At this point the models showing cold have mostly been flat out wrong and we have had no sustained cold temps. In my experience years like this the pattern stays relatively the same. The same can be said in years where we get repeating small snows. Indont suspect any major changes this year in my own unscientific yet experienced based outlook.

Bring on spring.

I like your post except for the "bring on spring" part. We've already mainly been in spring. I'm ready for winter to start.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like your post except for the "bring on spring" part. We've already mainly been in spring. I'm ready for winter to start.

Winter started and ended in November unfortunately ??
But anyways I think something will happen in March

 

[Webberweather53]

Those who have visited my site recently noticed that I've changed the title to "North & South Carolina Winter Storm Archive" from just NC. Even though I've only got 2 maps thus far for SC, you always gotta start somewhere.

SC Winter Storm Archive 2020s

 

[GaWx]

Whereas the 12Z GFS actually had some onset ZR in part of the WNC CAD region (map posted earlier), the 18Z doesn't as it has a weaker parent high whose wedge breaks down faster allowing for quicker warming and much less qpf. I'll still keep following for now.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

How bout them ? ?

 

[GaWx]

What the?

 

[accu35]

let's try this again. Few runs now from the gfs with this look

 

[accu35]

What the?
View attachment 33825

Yeah that time frame is worth watching

 

[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What the?
View attachment 33825

Nice look at H5 for some overrunning

 

[accu35]

Nice look at H5 for some overrunning

This may be our next shot

 

[ATLwxfan]

At this point the models showing cold have mostly been flat out wrong and we have had no sustained cold temps. In my experience years like this the pattern stays relatively the same. The same can be said in years where we get repeating small snows. Indont suspect any major changes this year in my own unscientific yet experienced based outlook.

Bring on spring.

The cold March and April is going to make us wish for spring.


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[LetItSnow]

Pretty phenomenal! We will not see numbers like this again until next winter.


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"Dislike" that it will probably happen..

 

[Six Mile Wx]

Those who have visited my site recently noticed that I've changed the title to "North & South Carolina Winter Storm Archive" from just NC. Even though I've only got 2 maps thus far for SC, you always gotta start somewhere.

SC Winter Storm Archive 2020s

Love it already!

 

[Deleted member 1449]

This may be our next warm rain apps runner

Fixed it for you ?

 

[Six Mile Wx]

 

[Six Mile Wx]

If this year is so much like 1990 then we’re the analogs from JB?

 

[GaWx]

There's nothing wrong with a +NAO. There have been a good number of major (and even historic) SE winter storms during a +NAO. That includes the one from Saturday, which also occurred during a very strong +AO and a phase 5 MJO.

Now if were to not have a return of a+PNA, that would be a horse of a different color.

 

[WxWatch]

I agree, the NAO will stay positive through early March. I think eventually we'll see a -AO though.

 

[Six Mile Wx]

There's nothing wrong with a +NAO. There have been a good number of major (and even historic) SE winter storms during a +NAO. That includes the one from Saturday, which also occurred during a very strong +AO and a phase 5 MJO.

Now if were to not have a return of a+PNA, that would be a horse of a different color.

This was for reference only not really suggestive one way or the other. I also believe that as long as the cold shots keep coming we might just get one perfectly timed before we run out of time.