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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Close call as I’ve been warning, especially in NC CAD area. This is the first GFS run actually showing some ZR anywhere in SE. A sign of things to come for Sunday? Stay tuned:

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12Z GEFS is signaling that trouble may be brewing in the form of ZR for the major CAD areas for Sunday, especially in NC. Keep in mind two things:
1) Anywhere under a strong wedge there’s 850s at precip onset between -2 and -5 is a guideline I’ve used well in the past to predict ZR. This GEFS shows just that in W NC and vicinity.

2) The wedge has been generally trending stronger and colder.

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GaWx said:
12Z GEFS is signaling that trouble may be brewing in the form of ZR for the major CAD areas for Sunday, especially in NC. Keep in mind two things:
1) Anywhere under a strong wedge there’s 850s at precip onset between -2 and -5 is a guideline I’ve used well in the past to predict ZR. This GEFS shows just that in W NC and vicinity.

2) The wedge has been generally trending stronger and colder.

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Low 40s with a cold rain in NGA. It’s close.


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GaWx said:
12Z GEFS is signaling that trouble may be brewing in the form of ZR for the major CAD areas for Sunday, especially in NC. Keep in mind two things:
1) Anywhere under a strong wedge there’s 850s at precip onset between -2 and -5 is a guideline I’ve used well in the past to predict ZR. This GEFS shows just that in W NC and vicinity.

2) The wedge has been generally trending stronger and colder.

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I don't like that the low tracks to the great Lakes, but the initial CAD is strong. Dew points get into the single digits in NC and teens down into SC and Ga. Maybe we can get that low to track more south or more west. Then keep the high locked more to the NE. Not asking for much...
 
cd2play said:
Yowza... A March 1993 redux!
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To go along with the cold, this 6Z CFS also has it very wet with lots of Gulf moisture due to what appears to be a nice ST jet/split flow with the strong northern stream, a perfect recipe for a major SE winter storm: The only problem is these maps may be fiction. However, I've been calling for a much colder overall SE for a 2-3 week period between 2/20 and 3/20 based on analogs but also based on what should be a more favorable MJO and AAM as opposed to any model. So........
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NoSnowATL said:
Is the CFS the only model seeing the cold? Hard to put a lot of faith in it since it’s always cold. Just feel like I would be seeing more cold talk if others saw it as well.

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Well, it and the Euro Bleaklies are the only ones I follow that go out that far and the last Bleakies have been mild, So the answer is "yes" from my perspective. And yes, I've often stated that the CFS, like most models, has had a significant cold bias. However, my prediction is not at all model based as I said. I first made that prediction back in January and it had nothing to do with models. As a matter of fact, the CFS was then showing a quite cold Feb, overall, which I wasn't believing and was poo pooing because it didn't fit analogs and the teles were largely headed back into the commode. I kept my cold timeframe to somewhere within 2/20-3/20.

Another thing to note is that despite the cold bias, the CFS isn't always cold. But recently, many runs have been cold for the similar timeframe with some very cold and for long periods as we're getting closer and closer to said timeframe. One more thing to note: the CFS was correct about the Nov cold.

Edit: Reminder, Bleakies out late this afternoon. If they're mainly mild, I won't let them bother me and will attribute that to the inability of the model to see that far ahead.
 
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tennessee storm said:
Not in our lifetime
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I really hated that 93 storm. I got ~1.5" while others to the west got dumped on. But, I think if there is going to be a year that could produce such a storm this is the year. As we get into March the predominant pattern should break down. We'll be able to get colder (quicker) shots of air into the SE (at least until mid March). I feel that type of pattern would favor miller A storms over a miller B storms. 1993 was a miller A and it went right over RDU. Wild weather, but most of the snow stayed to the west of the track.
 
FallsLake said:
I really hated that 93 storm. I got ~1.5" while others to the west got dumped on. But, I think if there is going to be a year that could produce such a storm this is the year. As we get into March the predominant pattern should break down. We'll be able to get colder (quicker) shots of air into the SE (at least until mid March). I feel that type of pattern would favor miller A storms over a miller B storms. 1993 was a miller A and it went right over RDU. Wild weather, but most of the snow stayed to the west of the track.
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man no one will be prepared in the Atlanta area for something like that. It's crazy to think how most new houses don't even have fireplaces. no electricity=no heat for a lot of folks.
 
I could surely live with this: near normal/no real SER and dry sfc high pressure/NW winds. Seasonably cool days and chilly nights. Very nice!
Edit: Aside: The coldest Arctic normals are still two weeks away fwiw..

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mrdaddyman said:
Do yourself a favor and stop looking at the FailV3. Look at the Euro. Not saying it's perfect, because it's not, but it hasn't been showing this crazy nonsense all winter. I mean, even if the Euro showed this, I wouldn't believe it until I saw snow falling from the sky.
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Even the gfs is usually only showing something like this every once in a while and rarely more then one run. I believe we’ve seen less and less fantasy storms over the years because the models have gotten better. The 2 snows I’ve received of more than a half inch this winter have been handled pretty well by the gfs and all models honestly. The NAM has seemed much improved this season also. The snow from last week, every model had me receiving between 0.8 and 1.8 inches of snow and I ended up with 1.5.
 
The new Bleaklies are bleak. Why else do they have that nickname? So, who cares? And they're actually no bleaker than the last run.
Next.... :D

Edit: Actually, 2/24-3./2 is near normal, which is colder than the prior run's AN. So, that's good to see. And don't forget that this is an extension of the 0Z run.
 
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GaWx said:
The new Bleaklies are bleak. Why else do they have that nickname? So, who cares? And they're actually no bleaker than the last run.
Next.... :D

Edit: Actually, 2/24-3./2 is near normal, which is colder than the prior run's AN. So, that's good to see. And don't forget that this is an extension of the 0Z run.
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At this point the models showing cold have mostly been flat out wrong and we have had no sustained cold temps. In my experience years like this the pattern stays relatively the same. The same can be said in years where we get repeating small snows. Indont suspect any major changes this year in my own unscientific yet experienced based outlook.

Bring on spring.
 
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