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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Jon
Member
Oh well, it does nothing for the pattern...a gulf ridge spiking the EPO negative was never a true -EPO. It’s actually hurting us here by digging the trough west. If actually prefer a gulf low at this point.
It’s actually worse than the above image^ lol.
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I thought I had accepted that winter was over but when you see a trough build back over AK for the umpteenth time it's sobering. I just wanted some cool nights, but with pattern setting up it's going to be wet with warm nights. Day time highs might be muted, but I think we see a couple of 80F's end of Feb.
NAM for the Saturday system (at onset)
Edit the NAM looks to have slowed it down to come in at night for NC/SC which could be interesting.
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Not that it really matters (lol) but I’m waiving the ? on this so called winter. Hell we got a real shot at some nasty storms tomorrow. One day we will be able to have a nice winter again.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yeah the NAM extrapolated would be very nice for WNC.
Way too early, Chris, imo. No offense, but I sincerely hope you’re wrong! The bugs are having way too much of a party.
Edit: If the AAM is really going to go back positive after midmonth, game back on imo. Look what this very last +AAM was associated with, true winter.
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A bit worried about soil temps for this weekend's system considering it's been summer this week, so we better get some good rates if it does indeed snow. It would be advantageous if it hits at night. I'll be in Greensboro, so I may indeed have a shot at something.
I so hope I’m wrong too. I also noticed that the bugs are starting to come back too. Ugh.
Do you have AAM forecast charts?
Fountainguy97
Member
Leaf-out as much as 3 weeks early across parts of NC! Two ways this can go....
if this sticks it could be the earliest spring arrival on record for many.
Jon
Member
I thought -AAM leads to more amplified troughs and ridges in the northern hemisphere. Why would you be rooting for a +AAM? Just got change of pace? Or do I have it backwards, +AAM leads to more amplification?
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Jon, the +AAM tends to correlate to El Ninolike/+PNAish. -AAM tends to correlate with La Ninaish/-PNAish/SER. When the AAM finally turned to a solid and pretty longlasting positive just after mid Jan, that’s exactly when the SE finally had some semblance of winter (see image below). Also, more amplified troughs and ridges hurts rather than helps when you have a strong NE Pacific high, western or central trough, and strong SER. I learned all of this from Maxar only very recently.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I have to wonder if we can pull something off here
Jon
Member
Interesting. Everything I'm finding is contradicting which state is better. I see a majority of evidence supporting -AAM during the winter for cold. Do you have the research that shows -AAM leads to a strong SER? I'm seeing that a +AAM is bad because storms can't slow down and amplify, as in, the CONUS pattern is too progressive to lead to digging to put it in our terms. I'd be interested to learn the other side, as I just thought I was figuring it out until I saw your post. lol. I also saw that a -AAM could vary over the CONUS (Warm/cold over the SE) based on the IO state. Yet another 3 letter word that could mean different things at different times.
Westganick
Member
Hope so, might be our only chance of seeing snow in ga outside the mountains
Nerman
Member
