Pattern Fab Feb

[SnowNiner]

00z runs were looking like a bit of a downgrade............except, the Euro and EPS improved, the AI GFS was interesting...

And.....the WeatherNext Ensemble had its best run yet!

I don't have 500mb, but at the start of the loop, our storm wave of interest is hitting the west coast, and you can follow it along with the curvature in the dashed thickness lines as it dives SE into TX. That's how a healthy wave in split flow with an extending Pac Jet should behave. Also, the northern stream / TPV (purple and blue) elongates across the Great Lakes and dives down right behind our storm wave. All of this looks really good actually.

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Here is WeatherNext with snowfall increasing next weekend

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Then on the Euro, I like how the TPV over the Great Lakes continues to trend toward spreading out west to east / elongating here, instead of the deep, suppressing plunge to the SE

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Just a really great signal showing up overnight from the best models right now, so much so the wpc is taking notice. Can’t ask for a better signal at this point. Gfs can kick rocks, they’ll come around. Wondering what the ukmet is doing though as it was the first to crush our snow dreams for this weekend.

 

[Storm5]

Signal still there all you ask for 6-7 days away . Long way to go

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[griteater]

06z WeatherNext Ensemble. Very similar to 00z run

 

[Tokenfreak]

06z WeatherNext Ensemble. Very similar to 00z run

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How accurate/reliable has the WeatherNext model been doing? Just curious.

 

[Claycochaser]

I vote "The 3rd coming of Groundhogzilla" or "Groundhogzilla V3.0" powered by AI.

 

[Brandon10]

How accurate/reliable has the WeatherNext model been doing? Just curious.

Nailed this current event 5-6 days out IMO

 

[Tokenfreak]

Nailed this current event 5-6 days out IMO

Cool good to know. Thanks for the reply!

 

[256wx]

I think if you want to have two on your side, the WeatherNext and AIFS would be your top two draft picks.

 

[griteater]

How accurate/reliable has the WeatherNext model been doing? Just curious.

Nailed this current event 5-6 days out IMO

No model is perfect, but yeah it did quite well. It did really well with the precip minimum east of the Apps in the Carolinas on the front half of the storm here....and it held the damming in full storm for the most part

 

[SegTindo]

I think if you want to have two on your side, the WeatherNext and AIFS would be your top two draft picks.

I feel like more models are gonna start picking up on it soon just gotta wait


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[Arcc]

Gotta get that southern wave to beef up of you want a chance in AL and western GA. In other words, hope for the northern stream coastal at your own peril.

 

[SegTindo]

Gotta get that southern wave to beef up of you want a chance in AL and western GA. In other words, hope for the northern stream coastal at your own peril.

Does that also help out South And Central Bama?


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[Arcc]

Does that also help out South And Central Bama?


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The southern wave? Yes. But just relying on the coastal low off SC to give a chance is just getting your hopes up.

What we need is the southern wave to really beef up or the northern wave to trend a good chunk westward.

 

[griteater]

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 01 2026


Upstream, an amplified upper ridge will linger near the West Coast before
energy works onshore later next week with light-moderate rainfall also
set to gradually work to the West Coast and inland as the mean
upper ridge position gradually shifts eastward. This solution does
set the stage for renewed wintry precipitation potential for portions
of Texas late week as upper trough translation and uncertain
phasing leads to western Gulf frontal wave genesis, with an eye on
next weekend track potential to/off a still cold Gulf Coast and
Southeast U.S. to monitor for inland/coastal wintry precipitation.

 

[SegTindo]

The southern wave? Yes. But just relying on the coastal low off SC to give a chance is just getting your hopes up.

What we need is the southern wave to really beef up or the northern wave to trend a good chunk westward.

Interesting hopefully we can get one or the other and we all get some good snow fall!


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[Psalm 148:8]

I vote "The 3rd coming of Groundhogzilla" or "Groundhogzilla V3.0" powered by AI.

You remember that!! Good to see ya again!! We’re been around a while haven’t we.. I thought it was bad luck so I left that stupid little avatar alone.. guess I need to change it at the other forum.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

This looks about as good as it gets for an upcoming SE potential, starting off 12z pretty solid

 

[Arcc]

Icon starts off 12z with a dump off the bull just after the gate drops and he leaves the chute.

 

[Arcc]

This looks about as good as it gets for an upcoming SE potential, starting off 12z pretty solid

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Gotta look at H5. Hint: It's garbage.

 

[Disco_Lemonade]

Gotta look at H5. Hint: It's garbage.

Well yea of course it is, that's obvious by how it translated to the surface. We know it's going to change over the coming days. The question is how

 

[jackendrickwx]

im tired grandpa

 

[crecre9]

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Why are there so many members showing Huntsville getting snow today??

 

[256wx]

Why are there so many members showing Huntsville getting snow today??

Hopefully, we are getting some!

 

[jackendrickwx]

im not tired anymore that's two 20 inch members

#standingatattention #readytobesadagain

 

[CLOTT01]

We push all the chips into the middle . Its a good look 6-7 days out .

I like it too chuck. We need to bring this home. After getting absolutely blanked by this storm. Let’s bring it home.


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[broken025]

This south enough?

 

[Bigedd09]

This south enough?View attachment 189025

That has definitely been a concerning trend on the AIGFS. If it doesn’t go back north in the next couple days we may be cooked


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[Stevo24]

This one is already cooked. Enjoy your ice today if you got it!

 

[Mahomeless]

Not happening in AL unless things on a huge scale at 500mb.

 

[Mitch West]

This one is already cooked. Enjoy your ice today if you got it!

Lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo you wild bro

 

[ragtop50]

This one is already cooked. Enjoy your ice today if you got it!

Just curious why you feel this way towards this one this far out (asking to learn)?

 

[NEGaweather]

My god people geez


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[Arcc]

Huge step in the right direction at 132hrs on the GFS.

 

[broken025]

Just curious why you feel this way towards this one this far out (asking to learn)?

You may be better off asking someone else if you want to learn something

 

[Storm5]

Yeah gfs is a huge improvement at H5

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I understand the other thread is the main focus, but can we please cut down on the banter.

 

[Stormdoc]

This is just like the storm today, if we can get more southwest push and digging, it can capture the wave to deliver a storm. But this time, since the trough is oriented much further east, it will help instead of hurt

 

[Stevo24]

Lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo you wild bro

I actually think you have the best chance here lol

 

[accu35]

CMC little better. Starts showing some snow/ice in Louisiana. 0z didn’t have that