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Pattern Fab Feb

Early to mid-Feb continues to look promising

On the Euro, this looks like a weak to moderate +EAMT event here at the end of the month

Jan 25 Euro EAMT.png


That helps to extend the Pac Jet and move it south / equatorward. Can see the bulge / added momentum in the jet out in the central Pacific over the following week.

Jan 25 Euro Jet.png


Potential then for more southern stream waviness running into the west coast, meanwhile, the -NAO is getting renewed. We may be having El Nino with high latitude blocking a year early

Jan 25 Euro NAO.gif

Jan 25 GEFS NAO.png
 
When you start worrying about the progression of a wave and whether it’s going to have time to turn the corner or not or get shunted to Turks and Caicos just remember the storm we’re in right now went from granddaddy long fetch with suppressed heights across the south to a Ohio Valley interior NE crush job and a warm nose into VA. Small gradual changes make all the difference
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
When you start worrying about the progression of a wave and whether it’s going to have time to turn the corner or not or get shunted to Turks and Caicos just remember the storm we’re in right now went from granddaddy long fetch with suppressed heights across the south to a Ohio Valley interior NE crush job and a warm nose into VA. Small gradual changes make all the difference
Click to expand...

Oh I thought they cashed in at least that’s what the models said


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The GFS and the GEFS aren’t looking good at this point in time plenty of time to switch it up tho!
c628b0e91f3f7f09ed49041ecd92282d.jpg



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I gotta admit, it comforts me to see the Euro AI and its ensembles, the weathernext, and euro/eps looking better as the GEFS starts to look like 💩. Hopefully today will be a good trend day. Let’s build it up some back west today
 
Parker said:
I gotta admit, it comforts me to see the Euro AI and its ensembles, the weathernext, and euro/eps looking better as the GEFS starts to look like . Hopefully today will be a good trend day. Let’s build it up some back west today
Click to expand...

Amen to that
But watch out the GEFS likes to surprise you at random moments lol


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