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Pattern Fab Feb

griteater said:
00z runs were looking like a bit of a downgrade............except, the Euro and EPS improved, the AI GFS was interesting...

And.....the WeatherNext Ensemble had its best run yet!

I don't have 500mb, but at the start of the loop, our storm wave of interest is hitting the west coast, and you can follow it along with the curvature in the dashed thickness lines as it dives SE into TX. That's how a healthy wave in split flow with an extending Pac Jet should behave. Also, the northern stream / TPV (purple and blue) elongates across the Great Lakes and dives down right behind our storm wave. All of this looks really good actually.

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Here is WeatherNext with snowfall increasing next weekend

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Then on the Euro, I like how the TPV over the Great Lakes continues to trend toward spreading out west to east / elongating here, instead of the deep, suppressing plunge to the SE

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Cad Wedge NC said:
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Just a really great signal showing up overnight from the best models right now, so much so the wpc is taking notice. Can’t ask for a better signal at this point. Gfs can kick rocks, they’ll come around. Wondering what the ukmet is doing though as it was the first to crush our snow dreams for this weekend.
 
Tokenfreak said:
How accurate/reliable has the WeatherNext model been doing? Just curious.
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Brandon10 said:
Nailed this current event 5-6 days out IMO
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No model is perfect, but yeah it did quite well. It did really well with the precip minimum east of the Apps in the Carolinas on the front half of the storm here....and it held the damming in full storm for the most part
 
SegTindo said:
Does that also help out South And Central Bama?


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The southern wave? Yes. But just relying on the coastal low off SC to give a chance is just getting your hopes up.

What we need is the southern wave to really beef up or the northern wave to trend a good chunk westward.
 
Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 01 2026


Upstream, an amplified upper ridge will linger near the West Coast before
energy works onshore later next week with light-moderate rainfall also
set to gradually work to the West Coast and inland as the mean
upper ridge position gradually shifts eastward. This solution does
set the stage for renewed wintry precipitation potential for portions
of Texas late week as upper trough translation and uncertain
phasing leads to western Gulf frontal wave genesis, with an eye on
next weekend track potential to/off a still cold Gulf Coast and
Southeast U.S. to monitor for inland/coastal wintry precipitation.


Jan 25 WPC Maps.gif
 
Arcc said:
The southern wave? Yes. But just relying on the coastal low off SC to give a chance is just getting your hopes up.

What we need is the southern wave to really beef up or the northern wave to trend a good chunk westward.
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Interesting hopefully we can get one or the other and we all get some good snow fall!


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Claycochaser said:
I vote "The 3rd coming of Groundhogzilla" or "Groundhogzilla V3.0" powered by AI.
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You remember that!! Good to see ya again!! We’re been around a while haven’t we.. I thought it was bad luck so I left that stupid little avatar alone.. guess I need to change it at the other forum.
 
Icon starts off 12z with a dump off the bull just after the gate drops and he leaves the chute.
 
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