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Pattern Fab Feb

When you start worrying about the progression of a wave and whether it’s going to have time to turn the corner or not or get shunted to Turks and Caicos just remember the storm we’re in right now went from granddaddy long fetch with suppressed heights across the south to a Ohio Valley interior NE crush job and a warm nose into VA. Small gradual changes make all the difference
 
When you start worrying about the progression of a wave and whether it’s going to have time to turn the corner or not or get shunted to Turks and Caicos just remember the storm we’re in right now went from granddaddy long fetch with suppressed heights across the south to a Ohio Valley interior NE crush job and a warm nose into VA. Small gradual changes make all the difference

Oh I thought they cashed in at least that’s what the models said


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The GFS and the GEFS aren’t looking good at this point in time plenty of time to switch it up tho!
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I gotta admit, it comforts me to see the Euro AI and its ensembles, the weathernext, and euro/eps looking better as the GEFS starts to look like . Hopefully today will be a good trend day. Let’s build it up some back west today

Amen to that
But watch out the GEFS likes to surprise you at random moments lol


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00z runs were looking like a bit of a downgrade............except, the Euro and EPS improved, the AI GFS was interesting...

And.....the WeatherNext Ensemble had its best run yet!

I don't have 500mb, but at the start of the loop, our storm wave of interest is hitting the west coast, and you can follow it along with the curvature in the dashed thickness lines as it dives SE into TX. That's how a healthy wave in split flow with an extending Pac Jet should behave. Also, the northern stream / TPV (purple and blue) elongates across the Great Lakes and dives down right behind our storm wave. All of this looks really good actually.

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Here is WeatherNext with snowfall increasing next weekend

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Then on the Euro, I like how the TPV over the Great Lakes continues to trend toward spreading out west to east / elongating here, instead of the deep, suppressing plunge to the SE

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Just a really great signal showing up overnight from the best models right now, so much so the wpc is taking notice. Can’t ask for a better signal at this point. Gfs can kick rocks, they’ll come around. Wondering what the ukmet is doing though as it was the first to crush our snow dreams for this weekend.
 
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