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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

Alabama better watch the heck out. Looks like possibly a series of sharpie storms on the horizon. Funny how some years you just hope one comes sorta close so you can get some danged rain. That just ain't right :) All I got from the last one was a bunch of mid ninetys..and I can sure do without that.
 
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
 
campamy said:
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
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Your question is not dumb at all :)
Somebody posted this earlier. Believe It or not the upwelling wouldn’t have an effect on any storm that would hypothetically track along that region.
Henry2326 said:
Opposite to what I thought....Interesting....

Click to expand...
 
People were saying Dorian was going to hit the shredder early on! Long way to go
 
Ok let me bust a few myths real quick before I call the law. To say the GFS was a trash run after hitting the shredder, ...It’s a trash run to begin with for a system that is not defined and being forecast in the extended. The moon phase doesn’t matter, it’s peak hurricane season so it’s gonna happen more than likely. We do this every year and Friday 13th will come and go. Yes Humberto comes back time and time again as a Hugo replacement but it has consistently failed to be retired. And yes October seems to grow more violent here recently in terms of hurricane sandy producing a blizzard in western NC, major hurricanes, EF2 in Wilkes and who knows what this October has in store could be wild fars
 
Oh and yes it doesn’t matter if the water left behind by Dorian near Freeport can still produce a CAT 3.it would SEVERELY disrupt a tropical storm if it followed the same path. Have seen it too many times due to cooler waters left by upwelling CAT 5’s. Don’t care what twitter says. Of course, no such storm is likely to track exactly over it anyway.
 
campamy said:
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
Click to expand...
It also showed water temps at 85 already
 
this won't be near the Bahamas if it even takes a similar track for over a week so the waters will already be warmed up by then.

I'm not guaranteeing anything. This shows how tough long range forecasting can be, but where this wave's destination could be (and also if whether we might get relief from summer soonish) could be based off how a couple typhoons get absorbed into the higher latitudes.
 
Its the ICON so take it for what its worth. This look is not favorable for recurve at all.

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png
 
1. The 0Z Euro is weak and much further south in the Caribbean.
2. The 0Z CMC is faster and stronger skirting N Hisp.
 
Arcc said:
Its the ICON so take it for what its worth. This look is not favorable for recurve at all.

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png
Click to expand...
Looks like they are all taking about a 5 degrees latitude drop....closer to 15 which typically puts the path in a landfall zone....
 
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
12z GFS brings it back but so far the door looks open for it to exit stage right. Maybe landfall in North Carolina if anything I think but the open door looks wider then it did with Dorian.
 
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1568133958326.png

Should remain offshore in this run of model cartoons but it's taking it's sweet time...

Edit: Finally begins to turn away at hour 300. Took forever to.
 
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strong -NAO, blocking ridge above the storm, if the trough In the central US was a bit more west and not slowly moving it’s way East, than this would take a sandyish type path, ofc it’s 300+ hours out so H5 looks a little bit wonky anyways CAAACE58-01C2-4F90-9A66-1245B11C0038.jpeg
 
stormcentral said:
I saw a post on twitter have to check again sorry just reposting what was posted by a meteorlogist Logan Poole
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No worries...just curious. I always try and pay attention to whether or not the warm layer is shallow. It'll be easier to turn over and cool down, especially if the storm is moving slower.
 
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
 
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CMC further south-west and almost misses the shredder before heading to Cuba. Just too soon...I think a weaker system would have a better chance of getting further west into the Gulf.
 
GaWx said:
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is way out but it's not a good look for the SE:

Euro_EC_2019-09-10_12Z_FHr240_WM.png
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, this is way out but it's not a good look for the SE:

View attachment 23346
Click to expand...

At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. This will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.
 
GaWx said:
Though just a weak low, the 12Z Euro is in an unsafe position with regard to the CONUS: Hispaniola at hour 192 and getting underneath the right side of a big ridge. Let's see how this run ends. Will it still be able to escape?

Meanwhile, this is causing a huge flooding problem for the Dom. Rep.

Edit: At day 10 this ends up in the SE Bahamas moving slowly NW due to being trapped at that point by a big ridge to its north. There's no telling whether or not it would then go all the way to the CONUS but I wouldn't be comfy in that position. Maybe the 12Z EPS will shed some light on this.
Click to expand...

Yeah, very ominous at H5. Looks like the difference between the Euro and the GFS is where the system is when the ridge begins to build overhead.
 
GaWx said:
At 240, the 12Z EPS is centered all around the 12Z Euro's position and the mean has a similarly positioned ridge to its N and NW. So, I'm now going to see where the members go from there. This will give us a good hint at where the Euro would have gone after 240.
Click to expand...

The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.
 
Happy Hour GFS should be an easy recurve from the CONUS per its 192 position.
 
happy hour GFS is another big change at H5, exactly why I can’t believe it lol, trough digs a bit more in the western Atlantic allowing a opening
 
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