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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.
 
The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.
It’s the 18z, we toss!? That work for tropics also!?
 
Of course we are getting this again.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png
 
Yeah that's the second time the GFS threw out a solution that wouldn't work in a day. There's just no way that thing would cover most of Hispaniola and come out without taking an even bigger blow than what it did.

Think the bigger issue looking long haul is the further south solution appearing as if it were to miss the shredder it'd cause issues as depicted, but as soon as it hit the shredder and didn't weaken a ton it became a trash run.
 
Yeah that's the second time the GFS threw out a solution that wouldn't work. There's just no way that thing would cover most of Hispaniola and come out without taking an even bigger blow than what it did.

Think the bigger issue looking long haul is the further south solution appearing as if it were to miss the shredder it'd cause issues as depicted, but as soon as it hit the shredder and didn't weaken a ton it became a trash run.

Yeah those mountains aren’t modeled well but they tend to somehow miss them anyways. Its like a traffic median.


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Of course we are getting this again.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_49.png

Thankfully its gonna change at least 30 to 40 more times over the next 10 days. Would be another nightmare scenario for forecasters as a turn 100 miles east or west would change landfall point dramatically.

Just time to sit back and watch the trends unfold.
 
Thankfully its gonna change at least 30 to 40 more times over the next 10 days. Would be another nightmare scenario for forecasters as a turn 100 miles east or west would change landfall point dramatically.

Just time to sit back and watch the trends unfold.

If anything, if this misses the open door a few days earlier it will probably continue to trend westward. To be honest, after that point, I still believe this will be a narrow cone forecast. Unless major changes occur, if/when it nears the US coast it will be a much different pattern aloft than Dorian. Now the Islands could definitely throw a wrench in this though.
 
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If I remember correctly the GFS had this exact track for one of Its runs on Dorian when It was projected to hit Hispaniola. The only Difference was Dorian was a 1006mb Depression and was so sheared we didn't know where the Energy after it hit the Dominican Republic.
This is just one of those runs we toss out the window and say, Silly GFS.

However, It's not totally bonkers from its similarities in the 12z. What makes this run go into Florida is that the high is much stronger, therefore, has a stronger impact on the "Hurricane" as did the low more so in the previous run. I also will make note that the 00z and 06z runs had the High to the left which almost always promote OTS storms.
gfs_mslpa_atl_41.pnggfs_mslpa_atl_40.png
 
A week from now we should have a really good handle on if this will be a big threat or not. Watch this time period right here as we get closer.
 

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If I remember correctly the GFS had this exact track for one of Its runs on Dorian when It was projected to hit Hispaniola. The only Difference was Dorian was a 1006mb Depression and was so sheared we didn't know where the Energy after it hit the Dominican Republic.
This is just one of those runs we toss out the window and say, Silly GFS.

However, It's not totally bonkers from its similarities in the 12z. What makes this run go into Florida is that the high is much stronger, therefore, has a stronger impact on the "Hurricane" as did the low more so in the previous run. I also will make note that the 00z and 06z runs had the High to the left which almost always promote OTS storms.
View attachment 23331View attachment 23332

There is actually a much larger difference at H5 as we go ahead with this storm than Dorian.
 
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