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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

As long as that trough is there this "hurricane" will go OTS.
Edit: Uh oh high gets further enough south that it makes a left.gfs_z500a_atl_42.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
happy hour GFS is another big change at H5, exactly why I can’t believe it lol, trough digs a bit more in the western Atlantic allowing a opening
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Im not believing anything that has a deep trough in the east until like 84hrs out. I do not need my heart broken.

Speaking of crazy happy hour runs, the Real GFS has a very interesting solution at the end of its run.
 
Arcc said:
Im not believing anything that has a deep trough in the east until like 84hrs out. I do not need my heart broken.

Speaking of crazy happy hour runs, the Real GFS has a very interesting solution at the end of its run.
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On Pivotal, the Legacy turns out to be nothing.
 
Arcc said:
Im not believing anything that has a deep trough in the east until like 84hrs out. I do not need my heart broken.

Speaking of crazy happy hour runs, the Real GFS has a very interesting solution at the end of its run.
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What a dance....
 
Isn't it crazy that the GFS has this storm pulling up offshore of CHS by a couple hundred miles on the 30th anniversary of Hugo, parks there to troll SC for a few days before exiting stage right. If Humberto doesn't form in the disturbance headed to the Gulf this system would also bear Hugo's replacement name :oops:
 

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0z GFS brings another idea to the table. Weaker, further south, goes over Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm, then just sits there and spins south of Florida for 24 hours while strengthening some (edit2: honestly maybe longer than that). Moved slowly before then too.

Edit: and now turns northeast and makes a beeline for Grand Bahama and Abaco Island while really strengthening. Good thing this is fantasy land as the GFS is a BAADD troll.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
0z GFS brings another idea to the table. Weaker, further south, goes over Hispaniola as a minimal tropical storm, then just sits there and spins south of Florida for 24 hours while strengthening some. Moved slowly before then too.
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Wow I don’t know what it is but these last couple of years seem like storms like to Stall more often.
 
The anatomy for this one to become a fish for the US could be a system behind this one. On this run (and maybe some previous runs and on the legacy) you can clearly see it help give an avenue for the exit. If not then I think it probably landfalls as a minimal hurricane (assuming what you have from this run) and if the system behind takes it out there could be major problems.

Of course this will change at least 10000 times and it assumes a tropical system forming period.
 
Larry will have to confirm, but should be a lot more Gulf storms on the 0z EPS.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_watl_11.png
 
Very interesting, Ive always thought Data ingestion only happens on the 0z and 12z runs, but now Im not so certain. Both 6z FV3 and GFS match the location of fhe storm and ridge structure of the 0z EPS. Buckle up time is getting closer.

EDIT= Really impressive agreement at H5 between the 0z Euro, 6z FV3 and 6z GFS at 168hrs.
 
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GaWx said:
The verdict is in. Almost 25% (12) either hit or are a clear CONUS threat: 5 in Gulf, ~6 SE US, 1 NE US. Most of the other ~75% recurve well east of the US. So, a recurve east of the CONUS continues to be the most favored outcome per model consensus by a pretty good margin. This has been the case for several days and it is holding. Hopefully, that is a good sign. But 25% is still way too high for comfort and model biases may mean that the 25% rises later.
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06z GPS, your Gulf warning is heard. Michael 2.0......although further south in Florida....

It's a beast...moves across FL at 939 and into SC coast at 956.
CMC taking the same path to the Gulf.
Watching for 12z Euro to see if it moves south.
 
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Looking through the members quickly, it looks definitely looks like more of a split between those that impact the US and those OTS and some are really close. Of course a another good chunk do not have the storms. That said, there are some absolute monsters in the EPS. If something can get going and avoid the Shredders, it will very likely be a high end major Hurricane.
 
Arcc said:
Looking through the members quickly, it looks definitely looks like more of a split between those that impact the US and those OTS and some are really close. Of course a another good chunk do not have the storms. That said, there are some absolute monsters in the EPS. If something can get going and avoid the Shredders, it will very likely be a high end major Hurricane.
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It's moved quickly from 75% ots....
Early warnings are never good news,...
 
Euro very similar to the 12Z GFS actually at least with the track through the Bahamas...not what the northern islands wanna see....
 
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_fh120_trend.gif
 
KyloG said:
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

View attachment 23403
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Yea, we've got some time to watch this swing....
 
KyloG said:
Will see how the hemispheric pattern verifies day 8+ when this could potentially be nearing conus/caribbean but you can't have to much confidence in any direction. Look at how the modeled day 5 pattern on the EPS looked like at day 10.

Geez...day 10 it was modeling a NW ridge, now it's modeling a NW trough.

View attachment 23403
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The OP runs of the Euro and GFS have been showing the west coast trough. Seeing it trend stronger isn’t that surprising.
 
GaWx said:
12Z EPS has nearly 25% of the members into the Gulf, which is a bit higher than the 0Z had and much higher than the ~15% of the 12Z GEFS.
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Larry,
Appreciate the pbp!
One thing ... and it's only 25%, but if something actually organizes and forms, chances are in the LR it curves N to NE at some point (a goodly portion have a way of doing that) ... so please ... reduce the % of GOM to 0 ...
Phil
 
Fwiw, this happy hour GFS I think doesn't even develop this specific wave at least so far. It likes the one after it better (although I do see the circulation on the map).
 
Still no development of this specific wave on this run but if it manages to make it to the Gulf it could be dangerous.

in the meantime, the wave behind this one goes nuts but it should be an easy fish.
 
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The euro blows 95L up so much it appears to leave a weakness for this to at least try and follow

edited it gets to the Bahamas and then a big trough pushes it OTS while 95L hits the NE

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8 (1).png
 
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