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Tropical Ex-Invest 96L

Alabama better watch the heck out. Looks like possibly a series of sharpie storms on the horizon. Funny how some years you just hope one comes sorta close so you can get some danged rain. That just ain't right :) All I got from the last one was a bunch of mid ninetys..and I can sure do without that.
 
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
 
campamy said:
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
Click to expand...
Your question is not dumb at all :)
Somebody posted this earlier. Believe It or not the upwelling wouldn’t have an effect on any storm that would hypothetically track along that region.
Henry2326 said:
Opposite to what I thought....Interesting....

Click to expand...
 
People were saying Dorian was going to hit the shredder early on! Long way to go
 
Ok let me bust a few myths real quick before I call the law. To say the GFS was a trash run after hitting the shredder, ...It’s a trash run to begin with for a system that is not defined and being forecast in the extended. The moon phase doesn’t matter, it’s peak hurricane season so it’s gonna happen more than likely. We do this every year and Friday 13th will come and go. Yes Humberto comes back time and time again as a Hugo replacement but it has consistently failed to be retired. And yes October seems to grow more violent here recently in terms of hurricane sandy producing a blizzard in western NC, major hurricanes, EF2 in Wilkes and who knows what this October has in store could be wild fars
 
Oh and yes it doesn’t matter if the water left behind by Dorian near Freeport can still produce a CAT 3.it would SEVERELY disrupt a tropical storm if it followed the same path. Have seen it too many times due to cooler waters left by upwelling CAT 5’s. Don’t care what twitter says. Of course, no such storm is likely to track exactly over it anyway.
 
campamy said:
Might be a dumb question, but after all the upwelling from Dorian how long does it take for the waters to recover and warm up? I saw a map either here or on twitter that showed how significantly the waters had cooled. Would they still be cool enough that far down the road to temper anything moving through?
Click to expand...
It also showed water temps at 85 already
 
this won't be near the Bahamas if it even takes a similar track for over a week so the waters will already be warmed up by then.

I'm not guaranteeing anything. This shows how tough long range forecasting can be, but where this wave's destination could be (and also if whether we might get relief from summer soonish) could be based off how a couple typhoons get absorbed into the higher latitudes.
 
Its the ICON so take it for what its worth. This look is not favorable for recurve at all.

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png
 
1. The 0Z Euro is weak and much further south in the Caribbean.
2. The 0Z CMC is faster and stronger skirting N Hisp.
 
Arcc said:
Its the ICON so take it for what its worth. This look is not favorable for recurve at all.

icon_z500_mslp_namer_61.png
Click to expand...
Looks like they are all taking about a 5 degrees latitude drop....closer to 15 which typically puts the path in a landfall zone....
 
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