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Tropical Eta

HWRF with a 960 mb hurricane in the eastern gulf. Sorta matches the GFS now. Would be close to major hurricane strength.

hwrf_mslp_wind_29L_31.png
 
The recon found 59 kt winds.
000
URNT15 KWBC 081419
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108
141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00
141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00
141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00
141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00
141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00
141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00
141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00
141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00
141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00
141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00
141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00
141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01
141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01
141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01
141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01
141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01
141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01
141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01
141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01
141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00
 
SD said:
EPS has a pretty healthy mean of 3.5-4.5 around here with the majority of that falling late Thursday through Saturday.
Click to expand...

Good I’m off after 5 on Thurs for 2 days.


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ForsythSnow said:
Well that run is a setup for a Tampa Bay nightmare. If the trends continue they'll have anything from a cat 1 to a 3 creeping up on them. Just think of all the storm surge.
Click to expand...
I really hope it doesn't creep further north before it does the loop
 
Looks like it sits there and weakens a lot before landfall around Tampa but still that's an interesting trend

The GEFS is all over the place

29L_gefs_latest (8).png
 
12th landfall of the season!

Despite the horrible appearance on satellite recon is still supporting 65 mph

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA ...

Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower
Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with
maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h).
 
Almost all major models now taking a path towards an eventual LA landfall again!! After meandering! I think only one is going into big bend of FL.
 
ETA is close to backing far enough SSE it may make another Cuba landfall.

Looks like the 12z models are starting to agree on what's left of the center getting into FL later in the week
 
SD said:
ETA is close to backing far enough SSE it may make another Cuba landfall.

Looks like the 12z models are starting to agree on what's left of the center getting into FL later in the week
Click to expand...
It really is getting close but might be just now starting to turn north, gonna be close.... not sure why I care Lol.

And didn't the GFS basically showing it dying off in the NE GOM, I guess looks like it just gets shredded
 
Looks like Euro tries to make landfall in bend of Fl.
If this were any other year I feel like there would be tons of discussion about this storm just due to the stupid path it has taken lol
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like Euro tries to make landfall in bend of Fl.
If this were any other year I feel like there would be tons of discussion about this storm just due to the stupid path it has taken lol
Click to expand...
haha Euro slams on breaks and starts moving south away from the coast.

Good luck with getting the remnant center forecast right once it gets decapitated from the convection, models have been all over the place with that
 
SD said:
haha Euro slams on breaks and starts moving south away from the coast.

Good luck with getting the remnant center forecast right once it gets decapitated from the convection, models have been all over the place with that
Click to expand...
Yeah it finally brings what's left into the Fl panhandle haha.
 
12Z UKMET: into FL Big Bend but fortunately as just a weakening TD:

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.6N 85.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.11.2020 0 22.6N 85.3W 994 35
0000UTC 11.11.2020 12 23.4N 85.1W 993 41
1200UTC 11.11.2020 24 24.7N 85.1W 995 41
0000UTC 12.11.2020 36 26.1N 84.8W 996 43
1200UTC 12.11.2020 48 27.0N 85.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 13.11.2020 60 27.7N 84.6W 1005 27
1200UTC 13.11.2020 72 28.3N 84.2W 1008 26
0000UTC 14.11.2020 84 28.1N 84.2W 1011 27
1200UTC 14.11.2020 96 28.6N 85.0W 1013 19
0000UTC 15.11.2020 108 30.7N 83.9W 1013 20
1200UTC 15.11.2020 120 32.4N 81.8W 1015 20
0000UTC 16.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING
 
So I think Brad said no impacts from Eta ?? Does this count!??? For the Carolinas7F534433-AC24-481C-9D89-7E3A9EA34143.png
 
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