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Pattern Elevation Micro-climatology (SE Mountain Weather)

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Ray’s Weather Center not biting yet on this weekend..you can hear the potential in his words though;

“We catch a break Thursday into Friday ahead of low pressure developing in the Gulf before moving into the Southeast. Computer guidance is all over the place. I'm steering the forecast ship for now in the middle on both timing and precipitation type... rain or a wintry mix possible Friday night into Saturday.”
 
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Loving the continued idea of a potent system moving through with some solid upslope snows as the low pulls out..some solid numbers could be posted if this general idea can hold 6B04E060-BBE0-4AB0-BE8F-A66E8C94CCB2.png
 
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&&

...THE FORECAST FOR ROAN MOUNTAIN AT 6285 FT...

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. In
the clouds most of the night. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds
25 to 30 mph...decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up
to 54 mph.
.MONDAY...Cloudy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 3 inches. In
the clouds all day. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around
15 mph...increasing to northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Gusts up to 40 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight...then becoming partly
cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Little or no snow expected. Lows
in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 39 mph.
 
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&&

...THE FORECAST FOR ROAN MOUNTAIN AT 6285 FT...

.TONIGHT...Cloudy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. In
the clouds most of the night. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds
25 to 30 mph...decreasing to 20 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up
to 54 mph.
.MONDAY...Cloudy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 3 inches. In
the clouds all day. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around
15 mph...increasing to northwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon.
Gusts up to 40 mph.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy until midnight...then becoming partly
cloudy. A chance of snow showers. Little or no snow expected. Lows
in the mid 20s. Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 39 mph.
I've seen extreme weather on that mtn from -20° with 20ft drifts no jk 09-10 I believe pushing a foot in the ole powerstroke it was around -17° too if memory serves me right.
 

Fountainguy97

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And still snowing..I need help..I don’t know how serious to take this. I know flakes are going to fly up around Beech and sugar some time this weekend but NAM is all alone here..I’m not sure what to expect at this point View attachment 32492
Its still long range NAM so don't even look at it. 12km is WAY colder than 3km which is a red flag although 3km is very bad outside 48hrs.

Give it another day then come back and see what we have.
 
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Appalachian Trail Over Hump, Big Yellow and Roan Mountains Balds in December 2019

Absolutely fantastic 1 hour video and rendering of the experience of being in the AT with snow cover and above the clouds.

Few are blessed to experience this in summer and even fewer in winter.

It is truly the best the NC High Country has to offer. Heaven at its best.

Kudos to the fellow who put this together
Enjoy

 

BirdManDoomW

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WINTER STORM WARNING ⚠
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1037 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

Cocke Smoky Mountains-Blount Smoky Mountains-
Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Including the cities of Hartford, Cades Cove, Elkmont,
and Gatlinburg
1037 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet, with locally
higher amounts possible over the highest elevations. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph at times.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Nearing Blizzard Warning conditions above 4,000ft in Watauga.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1053 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Strong Winds, Rapidly Falling Temperatures, and Accumulating
Snow Showers This Evening and Overnight...

Ashe-Watauga-Grayson-
Including the cities of West Jefferson, Boone, Independence,
Whitetop, Troutdale, and Volney
1053 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO NOON EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow expected above 3500 feet. Total snow accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches, with amounts up to 5 inches above 4000 feet.
Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.
 

BirdManDoomW

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Absolutely beautiful day in Boone with all the snow and sunshine. And here comes another winter weather advisory for heavy snow at times.
 

BirdManDoomW

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3k NAM shows convective line starts in Wilkes/Surry and hits all of NC down East with rain/grauple. Then turning to Friday night/Saturday morning, I think some snow showers will break containment for the foothills.
 

BirdManDoomW

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this is near perfect weather for ski resorts until spring next week. No snow in the lower elevations will help bring people in. Good thing the rain looks to stay west or else we would be dealing with more flooding concerns. Warm air should help melt it before any concerns arise
 

LithiaWx

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GA microclimate high peaks are amazing. Woody Gap is one of my favorites. The roads are always treated and it’s a quick ride up from Dahlonega. When there is rain at the base you get big snow at the top.
 
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