Almost the classic track for lots rain of and maybe a few tornados for much of FL, GA, and the Carolinas if this holds up. Plenty of time though for this to take a different track or maybe not form at all. Maybe this could be what finally shakes up the overall pattern in the US if it gets strong enough. This could be a big problem though if it gets organized enough and does not run into a lot of shear. The gulf water is very warm and could really give this a boost.
I'm torn on what kind of strengthening I want this thing to do.Almost the classic track for lots rain of and maybe a few tornados for much of FL, GA, and the Carolinas if this holds up. Plenty of time though for this to take a different track or maybe not form at all. Maybe this could be what finally shakes up the overall pattern in the US if it gets strong enough. This could be a big problem though if it gets organized enough and does not run into a lot of shear. The gulf water is very warm and could really give this a boost.
Idk, Ian kept on adjusting east last year. At one point in the medium range it was a big bend landfall. I'm unsure our well known winter axioms translate into the summer that cleanlyDon’t be surprised to see this tick west a bit. As we get to remember the hard way every winter; troughs are nearly always modeled too fast.
The vorticity consolidation is going to be key as well. The cmc bombs convection North of the Yucatan which helps get it north faster which is west while the euro pulls it south towards convection so it's slower but strongerDepends on the strength, stronger goes more N and W and weaker stays E and S. Looks like a weaker system is most likely per models.
Relying on models for strength is not wise. Especially once systems get into the gulf. Even with shear they've shown to explode.Depends on the strength, stronger goes more N and W and weaker stays E and S. Looks like a weaker system is most likely per models.
Relying on models for strength is not wise. Especially once systems get into the gulf. Even with shear they've shown to explode.
That's fine, but you take your chances against something making it in the gulf and not strengthening if you want to. I know better.Franklin has has constant very deep convection for weeks and is still a TS. Bath water means nothing if it can't stack up.
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This track puts it pretty much on target for my backyard. Will be interesting to keep watch onCMC has a weird track and it has making landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle. ICON has it making landfall in the Florida Bend as well. View attachment 136422View attachment 136421
honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?That's fine, but you take your chances against something making it in the gulf and not strengthening if you want to. I know better.
I definitely don't think anything crazy but most of the models have this basically as a tropical storm and I'm saying a higher end Cat 1 is a possibility. These storms the last 5 years have shown that once it's in the Gulf they want to be stronger than what models showed.honestly i think i will take my chances; shear profile isn't fantastic for development and there's not really an anticyclone that could help with ventilation. also... it only has a day over the gulf?
personally think the ceiling is like 994/995 storm