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Pattern December to Remember

Larry, save this reply because it may be used later. If the alutian ridge dont shift east, if we dont get a -nao that more central or west based, and dont get the mjo orbit, we will get glancing blows and no real cold that lasts more than what we have seen. It will be chasing unicorns unfortunately

The fact that there are always “what ifs” is what imo makes for great forecast discussion threads.
 
Very frustrating storm for the Triangle. Snow just fizzled and died as it moved east like it hit a wall. I would still take that pattern in a heartbeat and take my chances the second time.
If I remember correctly, the short term models… mainly the NAM and SREF did horrible with that storm up your way. It kept showing that the heavy bands that had come across north GA, SC upstate and southern NC Piedmont and Foothills would hold together… instead the energy was transferring to a coastal low and it just ended up being too far offshore to help you guys.
 
Stepping away from pattern discussion to an observation from earlier today which was cool, at least to me.

Traveled from Cherokee, NC to Cades Cove this morning … 7 to 9:15 or so. Temps in Cherokee ranged anywhere from 28-31 or so with very heavy frost. Across New Found Gap, temps were up to 40-41 - no frost- and heading into Cove, back down into low 30s with very heavy frost.

Great illustration how colder, heavier air sinks or seeps into valleys. I know it is not unusual, just cool to note.

Hoping we see some winter weather soon!
 
JB mentioned in a tweet earlier that similar to 13 14 could be on the way. I would go streaking in front of his house singing Feliz navidad if that came close to happening this winter. That's how confident I wont have to do that

That means he is suggesting that a PV disruption could happen, which is true. A PV disruption could be imminent sometime in early/mid Jan.

The fact that there are always “what ifs” is what imo makes for great forecast discussion threads.

Exactly, the "what if's" layout endless possibilities, in depth discussions and can help determine the best possible outcomes.


I like it - it's getting better. We won't know how exactly this will turn out until it's in the 5 day window or less. CAD events can be very difficult to forecast in advance because of mesoscale features (particularly temp. profiles) that can't really be narrowed down precisely on non-mesoscale models. Mesoscale models are on a much higher resolution, so the CAD can be underestimated on the non-mesoscale models in advance.
 
Glad to see the Euro on board of the winter storm. Looks like the prediction may come true after all. Watch for trends here on out! I think the GFS will eventually be robust like the 0z Euro, or increasingly robust.
Isn’t this a totally different storm from what you were predicting? There’s too much disagreement between the models to get excited IMO; I’d be shocked if the EPS agreed.
 
Not bad but not great, for some reason the cold isn’t wanting to push south more this run, I do like the CAN vortex tho D5F889B0-5422-4249-AACB-457639315DE2.png2E3982E7-0427-4CE4-9487-4BEC97890FFD.png
 
JB mentioned in a tweet earlier that similar to 13 14 could be on the way. I would go streaking in front of his house singing Feliz navidad if that came close to happening this winter??. That's how confident I wont have to do that ?‍♂️?

This is nothing like 2013-14 which had positive AO/NAO most of the way. It’s behaving more like 2010-11 atm
 
From RAH (this is what we want to hear at this point):

."....The next northern stream wave will move through the northern Plains
Fri and Sat and into the Great Lakes by Sat night while the parent
trough extends southwest through the Baja. Another strong low will
move into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. It will then move east
through the Intermountain West on Sunday and into the Plains on
Monday, picking up the southern stream wave over the Baja as it
moves through the Plains. The strength and trajectory of the
northern stream waves will help influence what happens at the
surface and thus what the weather will be like over central NC over
the weekend and early next week. Will hold off on specifics until
there is a bit better model agreement, but expect at least a chance
for precipitation over the weekend and again early next week. There
could be some p-type concerns early next week, though it is still
too early to tell with any confidence and the models are completely
out of phase with one another
. A cold front is expected to move into
or through the area on Sunday with high pressure ridging in
thereafter."
 
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