Pattern December to Remember

[NickyBGuarantee]

There’s that pesky little piece of energy that’s been popping up on the gfs that’s the catalysts to such a big jump in SER strength as it dives south into the west pumping that bad boy … the CMC doesn’t see it at all and I’m assuming we don’t get screwed as much as the run continues but we will see

 

[SD]

It'll make its own cold

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GEFS got exciting again .. almost all at least bring a sizeable winterstorm to the Ohio valley which the operational is clueless on .. I think once again we have to toss that operational

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It'll make its own coldView attachment 96494

Wtf looks like a May height pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hello there

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

It'll make its own coldView attachment 96494

Poor little guy all on his own and no one wants to play with him

 

[SD]

Wtf looks like a May height pattern

Sadly it's an improvement height wise vs 6z

 

[Webberweather53]

Merry Torchmas. Can't wait to go to the beach and hit the links for Christmas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Maycember , you know you suck when your cutoff has 570dm lowest ??

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Merry Torchmas. Can't wait to go to the beach and hit the links for Christmas.

We still have 10 days to fix this after this long range image

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Maycember , you know you suck when your cutoff has 570dm lowest ??View attachment 96497

Top 3 Warmest December 2021.

 

[Webberweather53]

GFS Ensemble looks like utter failure in the medium-range

"Wow! Look at all that cold air to our northwest... annnddd it's gone"

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GFS Ensemble looks like utter failure in the medium-range

"Wow! Look at all that cold air to our northwest... annnddd it's gone"

View attachment 96498

That’s what a SER going to do

 

[Webberweather53]

Yep, the 6z GEFS improvement was a mirage. Got pimp slapped by the 12z

 

[NCSNOW]

I think a lot of this ties into old climo. We had a really long stretch (decades?) where the pacific was never bad other than short periods or random 1 off years so the main driver to winter weather was the NAO. Now that we certainly moved into a cycle where the pacific is more bad than good the influence/importance of the NAO gets muted and the importance of the pacific being favorable has come to the forefront. I'd rather spike a ridge through AK to the pole put the PV over Hudson Bay, have a +nao in the means and take my chances vs a -pna/-nao 35 and rain

Amen x 1000. Pacific drives our winter. Say it every year. Just give me one choice of a TC and it's a +PNA for me. I'll take a chance on the rest ligning up right.

 

[Webberweather53]

Idk how it can get any worse than the 12z GEFS. Big trough fixing to drop down the west coast and the SE ridge is already strong.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Idk how it can get any worse than the 12z GEFS. Big trough fixing to drop down the west coast and the SE ridge is already strong.

So basically a dec 2015/2016/2017/2018/2019 and most importantly 2011 repeat ?

 

[tennessee storm]

We planning on having our Christmas back patio this year , cooking food ole ribeye s and shrimp . Hope be wearing shorts to boot, looks like a good chance

 

[NCSNOW]

Let me know when Ya'll get ready to call the punter in this winter and Punt it away. I have old Reggies phone #.

 

[SD]

So basically a dec 2015/2016/2017/2018/2019 and most importantly 2011 repeat ?

You might be disrespecting 2011 by putting it into the same category

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Let me know when Ya'll get ready to call the punter in this winter and Punt it away. I have old Reggies phone #.

We may already be there…seriously. At most, I expect maybe a 10-14 day window of winter this year. We’ll see.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You might be disrespecting 2011 by putting it into the same category

Yeah the H5 pattern imo reminds me of 2015 the most

 

[Webberweather53]

MJO forecast to remain basically stagnant in phase 6 for the foreseeable future. Ironically, phase 6 is also the warmest phase in NDJ.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

MJO forecast to remain basically stagnant in phase 6 for the foreseeable future. Ironically, phase 6 is also the warmest phase in NDJ.

Yep it truly gets worse as we head forward

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

If the Charlotte area doesn’t have a top 3 warmest December y’all can ban me for the rest of winter.

 

[Tarheel1]

Yep it truly gets worse as we head forward

?

 

[LickWx]

Lol they definitely will warm more , Thursday- Saturday are 70s and today is almost certainly going to be higher than 61

Up to 65, blasting past the forecasts .

 

[olhausen]

A forecast high of -28 in Fairbanks on Saturday. Does anyone want that kind of cold?

Nope. Give me 25-30 degrees and a nice heavy snow!

 

[Webberweather53]

Yep it truly gets worse as we head forward

If the EPS or GEFS MJO forecasts are even remotely correct (they usually are when in agreement like this out to week 2), we're gonna be torching in mid-Dec

 

[deltadog03]

Idk how it can get any worse than the 12z GEFS. Big trough fixing to drop down the west coast and the SE ridge is already strong.

Good...I need snow in Tahoe

 

[Myfrotho704_]

65 way past the NAMs 60 from a day ago

 

[LickWx]

65 way past the NAMs 60 from a day ago

Yeah, the euro forecast Shane posted earlier had 61 here today . Well past that already, I could see us getting 68-70. Think we get mid 70s next 3 days .

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah, the euro forecast Shane posted earlier had 61 here today . Well past that already, I could see us getting 68-70. Think we get mid 70s next 3 days .

Brad says record high in clt in his forecast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can you say cold bias, temps are nearly 10 degrees warmer then this

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The deck was so stacked against us going in it was going to take a miracle for this pattern not to show up. I just hope it can relax enough at times to at least give us a shot of something frozen.

 

[Tarheel1]

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The deck was so stacked against us going in it was going to take a miracle for this pattern not to show up. I just hope it can relax enough at times to at least give us a shot of something frozen.

JBs taint, tainted this winter! How’s that ‘85 redux coming along, Bustardi??

 

[BHS1975]

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The deck was so stacked against us going in it was going to take a miracle for this pattern not to show up. I just hope it can relax enough at times to at least give us a shot of something frozen.

Yeap can't get anything to stick to the roads anymore.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Rain Cold]

I believe we're going to torch all the way through December. Then, after that, it's going to be nothing but hot as far as the eye can see until January is over. Then for February, it's going to record-setting hot, finally cooling off by late March. Going to be the number one hottest winter on record, and it isn't even going to be close, until it's beaten next year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro coming in colder early

 

[SD]