olhausen
Member
Smart thing to do if you want to keep your sanity. I’d love more snows in late December around Christmas time but it just doesn’t happen much in the southeast.
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
A lot to do with just having moisture on hand. Any cad we get will likely be imo “instu” driven due to all the dry air we have at the surface. Gonna need precip this winter ? and the cad will form from the bottom up instead of relying on a top down slug fetch from New England
this could get interesting much more AK ridging, only problem is how far west the ridge is 
The biggest and what might be the best thing about this euro run is the lower heights not connecting around AK, last run when they connected that led to the western ridge collapsing quite quick 
This looks a little better then the gefs
Incoming
Please don't drop this stuff in BC and the PNW down the west coast
Cmon we’re so close to something good this run but could easily dump it out west 
Thats how we roll!!! Live or die by each run lmao. Yall can have your ice though im good!
I’m I still think the vortex would need to be further south for any legit wintry wx, much better then last run tho 
At least it’ll rain 
Baby steps Fro baby steps. Lol I forgot who said it maybe Nicky B about lack of sensors in pacific contributing to the run to run changes but I could believe that models don't know what to do. Damn Euro is still king imo.
Messy and warm on the front. Looking forward to what happens when the first system clears and things try to kick out of the SW but the pattern across AK/NW Canada may ruin an attempt at a trailing system
This is disappointing and frustrating, we need a shetley sighting 
Yep need precip to get snow
StormWatch
Member
The large scale pattern is indeed looking ugly for sure. I'd like to see a +EPO because if there was a trough over Alaska/Gulf of Alaska, a westen ridge would likely build (+PNA) I'd also like to see high latitude blocking going poleward to force displacement of the main PV. As we know it (for now) the Arctic is closed. We can only hope this patten will not lock into place.
So 12z euro and ensembles join the party … any ice members on the EPS?
This seems like a legit chance to score before the pattern warms up quite a bit … all we need is a chance ??
Eps looked similar to the gefs with overall lower heights across much of the US through D10 but the SER comes back around d9/10 but a little more muted. The big change is more Aleutian/east Asian ridging past D10 with more troughing in AK into the PNW. Not sure if there's enough there to really amp the ridge and push the ridge into AK and really unleash the cold into the conus US in about 20 days
Not sure of wxbell codes ice as snow on the members but meh at best
Man it’s just 5 gefs ensembles with not much other support, and a couple EPS members, there’s not a legit chance right now just noise of 1 ensemble run for each suite, a legit chance is something consistent and under hour 180, the pattern at H5 isn’t even great in the pacific yet. this is how you set yourself up for disappointment, sure those GEFS members were nice to look at, but we see that every winter
Trend is our friend buddy that’s all I’m saying ?
The euro was still very warm I didn’t realize this lol 
Also 60F temp spreads on the EPS the most I’ve ever seen
Also 60F temp spreads on the EPS the most I’ve ever seen
cd2play
Member
It’s almost like December is not a winter month anymore, more like an extension of fall, kind of like September is sn extension of summer.
To be fair dec 17/dec 18 did have big winter storms in the SE
NCSNOW
Member
Shettley is Gonna Be King on Here over the next year.
and it almost feels like that March and April have become an extension of winter with the late cool spells we’ve been having the last few years
And even they weren't that great
This is comical but does in fact show the volatility. Over/under 2 percent chance those members with highs in the teens verify and I'll take the under lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Your lawn mowers are smiling.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Your lawn mowers are smiling.
This year will probably make this the 11th warmer than normal December in a row in the Carolinas. This is getting ridiculous.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sigh
I'm going to use this to forget that
LickWx
Member
Your lawn mowers are smiling.
This is expected due to the expected very warm first 3 weeks. But recent runs of this crappy model do show cooling just in time for holidays perhaps MJO induced:
Then there’s a transition between cold airmasses:
And then the first half of January looks pretty good right now fwiw (which isn’t much of course):
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ATLwxfan
Member