I need a good west dump or two. I need snow cover in Tahoe before the end of JAN
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Since 93 the best storms in McDowell were in December and we're between 09-20. It's something that keeps my eyes glued this time of year on the models.
Not sure if this is what we want to see. More troughing in NW Canada so far on the 12Z GFS.
Stephenb888
Member
So what did I miss today, all the models went to crap again for December?
our beautiful BC ridge going up
In flames
In flames
Probably gonna eventually get cold in the east but that’s ugly 
Never mind energy dumping energy on the eastern side of the garbage GOA ridge, probably about to SER hard
Not good at all for the SE. Maybe those from AL/Central TN and points west can maybe make this pattern work,espically in mid Dec and after,but for us,this pattern would be a disaster. Western Ridge is simply too far west and theres no blocking to supress the SE Ridge.
We’re messing with the pattern around AK and leaving the vortex to long, which stunts the growth of the B.C ridge and needs up wanting to dump out west given the higher heights farther west, this has been a trend on overnight models and now, and started becoming apparent around 12z yesterday
I’ll hope for continued support from ensembles but these operationals are really getting ugly .. I’ll also hope we’re in a period of windshield wipe effect and we swoop the colder way in the next two days but you can’t like the way things are going bahumbug!
At least we’re still getting a decent rain maker on the gfs gotta look positively
Stephenb888
Member
How come when the models were showing legit cold everyone was saying it’s too early to believe it. Now it’s showing the opposite and winter is over apparently lol
No -NAO, pacific driven, it’s easier to dump cold out west with the pacific then here, countless times countless years we see things switch out west, last year was a exception because the blocking except for February
GEFS also looked worse. Trough hangs out longer in NW canada. Will likely see more SE ridging.
No one is saying winter is over it’s just this early shot doesn’t look to have much bang for the buck anymore .. this can easily change we’re just looking at trends .. we can see how easily things can go right and go wrong for us, winter will and should never be “canceled” this early due to operational outputs that don’t go past mid December lol
Ohhh Gfs with the severe look I’ll take that 
LovingGulfLows
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Damn will we ever see such a mature looking extra-trop cyclone in the gulf like this again?
Interesting to note that even though these are steps in the wrong direction the gefs clearly aren’t as dumpster fire as the operational outputs have been pointing at recently