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Pattern December to Remember

Myfrotho704_ said:
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Here’s the problem with the MJO prospects. Three days ago, the Euro had this forecast, which I called “yummy”:
9DD6872A-CD3F-49F7-A8A5-F1EC191554D2.gif

The Euro forecast has since taken a sucktastic turn for the worst and now has this “I can’t get away from the MC” scenario (due to very warm MC I assume) that isn’t “yummy” at all:
069BB8CC-AE81-4A4E-B847-BE914B4954C6.gif

I’m trying to remember if this area is where the Euro is not so good and that the GEFS might be better. @Webberweather53 and I have discussed this before.
 
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GaWx said:
Here’s the problem with the MJO prospects. Three days ago, the Euro had this forecast, which I called “yummy”:
View attachment 95759

The Euro forecast has since taken a sucktastic turn for the worst and now has this “I can’t get away from the MC” scenario (due to very warm MC I assume) that isn’t “yummy” at all:
View attachment 95760

I’m trying to remember if this area is where the Euro is not so good and that the GEFS might be better. @Webberweather53 and I have discussed this before.
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There are many things the Euro is not so good...the MJO being one of them.
 
Rain Cold said:
There are many things the Euro is not so good...the MJO being one of them.
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I don’t think it is that simple. Depending on where the current MJO is, the Euro is better in a good number of scenarios and the GEFS is better in other scenarios. @Webberweather53 knows all about this and it may very well be the case that the Euro isn’t progressive enough when the MJO is in the MC like it is now.
 
GaWx said:
I don’t think it is that simple. Depending on where the current MJO is, the Euro is better in a good number of scenarios and the GEFS is better in other scenarios. @Webberweather53 knows all about this and it may very well be the case that the Euro isn’t progressive enough when the MJO is in the MC like it is now.
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Sounds good. I confess I haven't done extensive research on which background states the ECMWF is, by a small statistical significance, too progressive or conservative for all of the various indexes, convective systems, tropical forcing mechanisms, stratospheric propagations, or H5 progressions. However, I have seen it, like the GFS, GEFS, CMC, and its own ensemble suite, frequently reverse on all of those things, especially beyond D5 or so.

Webber might be able to tell you that it has a 51% chance of being too progressive in a 2nd year La Nina, but Rain Cold can tell you that the European model is a hunk of junk at the end of its range.
 
GaWx said:
Well, a little good news for cold lovers is that the HappyHour GEFS doesn’t have as strong/long of a torch following the current cold and when it subsequently cools back to at least normal.
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Some of the GEFS really getting excited about a period of possible severe weather along with a significant cold snap back to reality after with plenty of mischief in the middle .. first group of much more exciting ensemble members I have seen in a little while
 
I spy a severe weather outbreak, completely cold ANAL front snow to snow, coastal Piedmont crusher, ice storm turned into backside snow, flooding event.. you name it the 18 GEFS has it
 
This may be a Webber question. In all seriousness, do we want to see the mjo fire up and get into phase 7 to have any real chance at a colder pattern later? We dont want to be chasing unicorns all winter lol. I'm just trying to put 2 and 2 together. Also I think if we get a flat aleutian ridge instead of a poleward, that wont be good either. The niña, imo, looks more east based with coldest anomalies in 1+2 region. And -qbo.
 
On a brighter note, the GEFS, which tends to do somewhat better than the Euro when the MJO is in the MC because it is correctly more progressive, is encouraging for potential cold mid to late Dec. Who needs the over-rated King anyway? He’s just a figurehead.

E276F676-CABC-446F-A1D2-0926BFBEF3C5.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
Sounds good. I confess I haven't done extensive research on which background states the ECMWF is, by a small statistical significance, too progressive or conservative for all of the various indexes, convective systems, tropical forcing mechanisms, stratospheric propagations, or H5 progressions. However, I have seen it, like the GFS, GEFS, CMC, and its own ensemble suite, frequently reverse on all of those things, especially beyond D5 or so.

Webber might be able to tell you that it has a 51% chance of being too progressive in a 2nd year La Nina, but Rain Cold can tell you that the European model is a hunk of junk at the end of its range.
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It doesn’t matter if you had the MJO in phase 2, a +PNA that reached all the way to Australia, a -NAO that was the strongest ever seen and covered all of Canada, it would still 33 and rain! It’s just the way it is now! I’m glad I was there to witness January 88!!! Still the greatest snowstorm of my lifetime and I don’t think it will be beaten up here either!
 
GaWx said:
On a brighter note, the GEFS, which tends to do somewhat better than the Euro when the MJO is in the MC because it is correctly more progressive, is encouraging for potential cold mid to late Dec. Who needs the over-rated King anyway? He’s just a figurehead.

View attachment 95769
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That great Larry! What does the bc gefs indicate with mjo?
 
GaWx said:
Good news is that the 0Z GEFS looks like it could be similar to the 18Z, which itself was significantly colder than the 12Z and earlier runs.
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And now I can add the 6Z to the 18Z and 0Z as GEFS runs in which there are only 1-2 AN days through the entire 16 days in the SE US meaning the impressive run of cold domination now has no end in sight at least per the GEFS!!

And with the GEFS suggesting the potential for a favorable MJO for SE cold mid to late Dec, well…..
 
GaWx said:
And now I can add the 6Z to the 18Z and 0Z as GEFS runs in which there are only 1-2 AN days through the entire 16 days in the SE US meaning the impressive run of cold domination now has no end in sight at least per the GEFS!!

And with the GEFS suggesting the potential for a favorable MJO for SE cold mid to late Dec, well…..
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Some big dog ensembles at that C7C5F053-A186-409F-A720-31A605289A70.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The shallow western ridge this fall has been extremely stubborn, like what the southeast ridge use to be
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and while that shallow ridge doesn’t help promote a cross polar flow to bring Siberian air mass into North America, it can help to bring in the cold that builds in NW Canada… as we go further into December that’s cold enough to get winter weather
 
Modeling is showing trough after trough digging into the east. Need to keep it up. I really like what I see so far. How long will it last though? History tells me not to get my hopes up.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Goes from phase 6 into the cod. I thought we want to see it in phase 7? Larry, do u see the BC after gefs top right corner? That's the bias corrected I meant earlier
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A low amplitude MJO is not really something to worry about or get overly excited about. Lots of other pattern drivers at work out there.

Also, the western ridge may break down for a time, but we may also see blocking develop. There's some pretty good cold air building up over northern North America. Wouldn't take a lot to tap it.
 
Rain Cold said:
A low amplitude MJO is not really something to worry about or get overly excited about. Lots of other pattern drivers at work out there.

Also, the western ridge may break down for a time, but we may also see blocking develop. There's some pretty good cold air building up over northern North America. Wouldn't take a lot to tap it.
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Great raincold. If niñas are usually front loaded, hopefully we get action going soon.
 
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