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Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
Geez the gfs in the strat was pretty crazy ends with almost a split and a new warming event over Siberia that might be the killshot
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Yeah that seems consistent w/ some of the published studies I shared here earlier. The MJO - -NAO and stratosphere teleconnection is much stronger when we're in a La Nina. The ENSO base state significantly alters the natural areas of wave dispersion and sinks, also shifts the jet poleward over the West Pacific/E Asia domain, enhancing the Okhotsk Low, which rectifies as disruption onto the stratospheric polar vortex. The chances of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) definitely look more realistic to me than even a few-several days ago. The real question will be how the troposphere responds, but as last winter showed (& there's literature to back this up too), when -NAO is already ongoing during the onset of SSWE, the SSWE prolongs and intensifies the -NAO.
 
I'm amazed how early he sees these things. Almost always beats me to the punch.




ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
 
One positive to note this winter is I will take a dead dry hard ground over 2” of water mud high grass like the past few winters. Should it snow, it will look prettier accumulating and maybe not melt as much if we see some colder thermals. Same for accumulating ice, it would stick better to a dry air surface vs swamp. I feel like all this dry air should give us a CAD winter with lots of sleet and mixing chances more so than all snow or all rain.
 
The heavy rain sound coming down on our office park is music to my ears this afternoon.
Currently 60.0F, and very March-like, just like others have pointed out.

KATL is +10.9F for the month so far.
 
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