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Pattern December to Remember

I'm posting this only because I want to look back on the 22nd and see how this panned out. lol. It's a really nice look, setting up for a Christmas miracle, but unfortunately way out there in la la land.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png
 
SD said:
We will see if this is just another eps head fake on the epoView attachment 96997
Click to expand...
Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
Click to expand...
Yeah this is the eps mean at D15. ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0044800 (2).png
We would likely be looking at another strong SER response and warmth the week of Christmas unless we get something that's getting washed in the mean moving across the us/can border where we can kind of box in the warmth. Looking at the eps plumes there are a handful of members that do something similar to that.
 
SD said:
Yeah this is the eps mean at D15. View attachment 96998
We would likely be looking at another strong SER response and warmth the week of Christmas unless we get something that's getting washed in the mean moving across the us/can border where we can kind of box in the warmth. Looking at the eps plumes there are a handful of members that do something similar to that.
Click to expand...
Yeah that’s the problem with a Aleutian ridge to -EPO progression, stuff is already Gonna want to go out west as things amplify
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that’s the problem with a Aleutian ridge to -EPO progression, stuff is already Gonna want to go out west as things amplify
Click to expand...
Yeah especially with no Natl blocking we sold have to build the pattern across the conus into something better so even if the eps was right in the pacific it would take some time unfortunately even if it ever got to something good
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah I’ll believe it under 200 hours. Ensembles do seem to be indicating a change around the Aleutian’s around 12-22. Still think a turn to normal to slightly BN could happen around the first of the year. Seen it many times, models usually rush changes
Click to expand...

Negative EPO events at this range typically look like this in the models, a suppressed ridge anomaly south of Alaska. The protracted to extended pacific jet state with a pre existing strong Aleutian ridge invites itself to -EPO. For the mid-latter half of the 2010s, most of those big -EPOs were born in this way in a Nina-ish base state w/ convection reaching about 140-150E longitude in the west pacific, which moves the Aleutian ridge off to the NE towards Alaska.

500mb height anomalies of big -EPO winters.

3509CDD8-E7A4-4A3D-8B16-5D76164D20B9.png


OLR anomalies of -EPO winters. -OLR (blue) = enhanced convection.
404A4085-B8E7-44E3-9D51-A4D2B020E5E3.png


The OLRa forecasts going forward look a lot like the composite pattern with stronger than average E hem convection in the means, and the core anomaly creeping up on 140-150E longitude later in the month. Will take a week or so for the mid latitude circulation pattern to adjust once the convection gets there, but beyond just the model forecasts and it being “x” number of days or hours out, it’s certainly a reasonable to believe we could see -EPO in 2-3 weeks time

1A7ADAB1-5D68-4288-B187-1D94BCDFB44A.png
 
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