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Pattern December to Remember

snowvol said:
2-3 good snows and a good solid 10 days to 2 full weeks on winter weather will make most folks in my region happy. And that includes me.
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This. Give me 2 snows of 2-4 inches mixed in with multiple flurry and dustings in a season and Im a happy camper. I’m just grateful to live far enough north that regardless I get to see snow falling every year and usually get at least 2 inches of snow a season. 2016 / 2017 was the one year since 2006 that I didn’t even manage a dusting. I got 2-3 light flurries events and it was the worst winter ever.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
How was the GEFS?
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The same as it has been to be honest. Had a little more 50/50 -nao signature vs 6z but was a little deeper with the wc trough at the same time. Later in the run it started hinting at the pac trough getting closer to the coast with the okhotsk low moving into the aleutians. Not much change tbh vs 6z though.

Looking at the 12z op, it was close to the mean with the larger players
 
Oh wow, a triple ridge bridge!

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed, looks fine as is. But migrate the Greenland block any more poleward and the Aleutian ridge anymore westward, and you open the door for a big GOA low and the SE ridge to pop back up.
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I'm not reading that deep into a day 9-10 operational run. In general, what I see is fine and realistic overall. A ridge bridge is being tossed around on NWP and if one were to occur, predictability goes right down the toilet as would the stratospheric polar vortex. I don't see the -NAO disappearing for any extended length of time between now and at least mid-January or so
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed, looks fine as is. But migrate the Greenland block any more poleward and the Aleutian ridge anymore westward, and you open the door for a big GOA low and the SE ridge to pop back up.
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Me thinks if the Euro went to 384 like the gfs we would see the cold spilling out nationwide or at least some realignment in the pacific setting up a better pattern for us. But yeah at face value that would at least be a low amp SER heading into NYE but even then you'd have to question if the Euro is handling the pattern under the blocking properly
 
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