Pattern December to Remember

[Webberweather53]

Me thinks if the Euro went to 384 like the gfs we would see the cold spilling out nationwide or at least some realignment in the pacific setting up a better pattern for us. But yeah at face value that would at least be a low amp SER heading into NYE but even then you'd have to question if the Euro is handling the pattern under the blocking properly

The lead-up to that inside day 6-7 is more interesting to me because it's closer to verification but also we've been trending that way on the ensembles too. It's also consistent w/ the GWO evolution the last several weeks and where I think we're headed. I'd still be happy if the ECMWF panned out like that exactly because the long-term effects would be stronger/longer-lasting -NAO and -AO through the balance of January.

 

[SD]

Honestly my first ? mark with the euro is here

How much interaction is there between the lobe over srn Canada and the energy crossing the US? More interaction likely ends up colder

 

[Metwannabe]

Honestly my first ? mark with the euro is hereView attachment 98173

How much interaction is there between the lobe over srn Canada and the energy crossing the US? More interaction likely ends up colder

And with strong blocking taking shape over top that seems plausible

 

[Webberweather53]

3 blocking highs 1 north pole

 

[Arcc]

Oh wow, a triple ridge bridge!

Maybe those runs dropping the entire PV on NA were not completely loopy.

 

[SD]

Eps is trying to move the western trough east post 240. It's slow

 

[SD]

Def more members trying to get the trough out of the west by 324

 

[Rain Cold]

3 blocking highs 1 north pole

If you could switch the high and low anomaly positions out west, oh boy ?

 

[iGRXY]

There's a lot of over the top blocking on the EPS and personally I think it is moving too slow with moving the tough east. The slow progression of the MJO maybe a reason for this. The -NAO is really nice as well which makes me think we would naturally have lower heights along the east coast.

 

[SD]

There are a lot of very warm/cold members buried in the eps but the mean looks like it'll end up just on the warm side of normal through most of the run. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out as we move forward in time and see more agreement

 

[SD]

There are a lot of very warm/cold members buried in the eps but the mean looks like it'll end up just on the warm side of normal through most of the run. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out as we move forward in time and see more agreement

Just as an example here is Christmas day

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Weather channel just released the January through March forecast map it’s very hot Atlanta, GA and points south-west and also above normal Carolina’s up into Pennsylvania

 

[Metwannabe]

Just as an example here is Christmas dayView attachment 98176
View attachment 98177

Just a little volatility. So those individual members showing AN anomalies, are they showing less blocking over the top? Borderline wishcasting I know but I'd lean more on the cool side if the blocking is there

 

[Deleted member 1449]

You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

 

[SD]

Just a little volatility. So those individual members showing AN anomalies, are they showing less blocking over the top? Borderline wishcasting I know but I'd lean more on the cool side if the blocking is there

Not sure to be honest since wxbell doesn't individual h5 for the members. My assumption from just looking at how the temp anomalies move they are dumping in the west more than anything.

 

[iGRXY]

You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

That's not true at all lol.

 

[Rain Cold]

You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

Yep. That's what I was getting at earlier. I mean it's a 10 day map. So who knows.. And it IS better than the bright orange colors we were seeing over our area a few days ago. But you can't have the Greenland ridge rotate poleward and the EPO ridge retrograde westward. The response will inevitably be for heights to rise in the SE. That said, nothing is showing we have to go in that particular direction. Lots of possibilities exist. Maybe a rex block sets up out west. That would be good. There's plenty of cold to tap on our side of the globe. That's also really good.

 

[SnowNiner]

You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

Patiently waiting for the GLAAD, -QBO, AAM, MJO, Jet Retraction, etc, or SOMETHING to take affect and kick that thing out of dodge! ???. So tired of seeing it. I'm sure when we do get an eastern trough, it'll be as transient as they come.

 

[GaWx]

Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer than Monday’s for the January portion averaged out in the E US though they’re not as warm as the run from one week ago. Of course, we won’t hear as much about this run from the mets on Twitter that were excited about Monday’s colder run.

 

[Chazwin]

That's not true at all lol.

You are correct. It has been shown on this thread countless times in the last week or more, along with past examples of why.