• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

metwannabe said:
Yep and long term implication could be problematic, already is to some degree

20211214_southeast_text.png
Click to expand...
I find this hard to believe, my yard is a sponge.
 
bigstick10 said:
I find this hard to believe, my yard is a sponge.
Click to expand...
Ok. I mean this has really been discussed plenty of times, the map is more or less broad brushing areas based off many factors not just recent rainfall. In the SE when so much rain is convective you will certainly have spots with more and other's with less, the map isn't going to pin down each spot like that. Overall, it's just catching up with the actual drought up here, rivers, lakes, creeks, ponds are low
 
January is in sight! Annnnnnnd.........it's the same as December. ? Seriously persistent Aleutian ridge pattern. Maybe a result of the MJO not moving forward. Really need to have the MJO move and stop messing around in 7 (EPS is worse). Don't think we see much real change in the pattern until tropical forcing switches things up.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png


1639663897520.png
 
SnowNiner said:
January is in sight! Annnnnnnd.........it's the same as December. ? Seriously persistent Aleutian ridge pattern. Maybe a result of the MJO not moving forward. Really need to have the MJO move and stop messing around in 7 (EPS is worse). Don't think we see much real change in the pattern until tropical forcing switches things up.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png


View attachment 98152
Click to expand...
Phase 7 mjo is decent in jan if I’m not mistaken
 
This is what I meant by the MJO possibly moving in the wrong direction in the short term. And can we really say that MJO phase 7 is a lock for cold in January?

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif


mjo_T_comp_djf.png
 
I annotated the GDSM Relative Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) plots to show everyone what I'm thinking/seeing when I look at one of these. The footprint of this past November's Maritime Continent MJO is still lingering in the mid-latitudes in the form of -U/-AAM (easterly zonal wind anomalies). The westerly momentum build-up from the ongoing WP MJO event looks like it's poised to send some of this -AAM (cool colors) sitting around 30-40N, and westerly momentum in the tropics poleward as we enter January. That would create a very favorable AAM distribution for persistent/strong high-latitude blocking in January.

Capture.JPG
 
Poimen said:
This is what I meant by the MJO possibly moving in the wrong direction in the short term. And can we really say that MJO phase 7 is a lock for cold in January?

diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif


mjo_T_comp_djf.png
Click to expand...
If you’ve been seeing some of the posts Webb puts out phase 7 in December but especially January means a bump up in our chances of a winter storm in the SE .. I’ll take my chances there
 
1639672208239.pngCouple things. The track of this is upper level low is about spot on for wintery weather in the Carolinas. Problem is we need more ridging over the lakes and need the 50/50 to trend stronger and slow down. Luckily the GFS is notoriously bad at predicting CAD but this is a close look.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top