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Pattern December to Remember

SnowNiner said:
Patiently waiting for the GLAAD, -QBO, AAM, MJO, Jet Retraction, etc, or SOMETHING to take affect and kick that thing out of dodge! ???. So tired of seeing it. I'm sure when we do get an eastern trough, it'll be as transient as they come.
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Screen Shot 2021-12-16 at 4.16.27 PM.jpg
 
Personally unless you are towards the coastal sections of the Carolinas you don't want a very strong +PNA or you will end up with nothing but ice cold, dry, and suppression city. The -NAO/-EPO/-PNA, and MJO in phases 7 and potentially 8 builds for more CAD events (whether that be in the form of ice or snow, typically the former) or a good overrunning event. We have to work a fine line between getting cold into the area, which this type of pattern absolutely can deliver, and not infiltrating too much or you're going to be just cold and dry. Also you're going to see models naturally want to push more SER into the medium and long range guidance due to the ENSO state and a bad habit of not realizing just how much a -NAO helps squash a lot of ridging along the east coast. Which we saw a ton of last winter.
 
GaWx said:
Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer than Monday’s for the January portion averaged out in the E US though they’re not as warm as the run from one week ago. Of course, we won’t hear as much about this run from the mets on Twitter that were excited about Monday’s colder run.
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More on this. All five day periods in January on todays Weeklies run are a bit warmer than the Monday run except for a bit cooler January 5-9, But again, today’s other five day periods, though a bit warmer than the Monday run are still a bit cooler than last Thursday’s run.
 
GaWx said:
More on this. All five day periods in January on todays Weeklies run are a bit warmer than the Monday run except for a bit cooler January 5-9, But again, today’s other five day periods, though a bit warmer than the Monday run are still a bit cooler than last Thursday’s run.
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Beyond week 2, I'm putting about as much stock into the weeklies as the Farmer's Almanac.

Dec 9th's run

1640649600-5O65FYMImSI.png


Dec 13th's run
1640649600-GZL7YJJeSyU.png



This week

1640649600-zKFCI4xTN5Y.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here it is in .gif form

View attachment 98183
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Excellent point. Indeed, the Weeklies are much colder during 12/19-27 than they were on Monday’s run thanks to the much stronger -NAO, which is within week 2 of the EPS. And they’re also cooler during 1/5-9 as mentioned. They’re warmer during 12/29-1/4, 1/10-1/20, and 1/23-26 (as I said during most of the January portion). Actually, due to the colder late Dec portion and 1/5-9, the entire run is about the same as Monday’s run added up and thus still much colder than the run from last Thursday.

As mentioned in the past, I think they’re warm biased in general. That’s why they’re almost always bleak and thus called the Bleaklies (so aptly named by @Rain Cold).
 
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I really don’t see the hate on this look that’s a crap ton of confluence all you need is a transfer of energy from the western trough that’s early enough to feel the confluence, this verbatim is slightly to late and would probably be a cold rain but it’s not a terrible pattern for the Carolinas A7D41587-6518-4A24-A99A-09735F0554B1.png
 
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