Mr. Golf
Member
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Mr. Golf
Member
He definitely likes cold weather lol
The fact that there are always “what ifs” is what imo makes for great forecast discussion threads.
If I remember correctly, the short term models… mainly the NAM and SREF did horrible with that storm up your way. It kept showing that the heavy bands that had come across north GA, SC upstate and southern NC Piedmont and Foothills would hold together… instead the energy was transferring to a coastal low and it just ended up being too far offshore to help you guys.
Today's high at DFW was 70*F.
Stratus deck held off just to the SE, so had plenty of sunshine too.
Stratus deck held off just to the SE, so had plenty of sunshine too.
? 
Trying 
Move that high about 100 miles closer to Lake Erie and you almost have a “Super CAD” set up… that’s some frigid air available in SE Canada
MA thread gonna like this one. Not so mucho here
Don’t even look at precip maps. Just this. You’re welcome.
Stepping away from pattern discussion to an observation from earlier today which was cool, at least to me.
Traveled from Cherokee, NC to Cades Cove this morning … 7 to 9:15 or so. Temps in Cherokee ranged anywhere from 28-31 or so with very heavy frost. Across New Found Gap, temps were up to 40-41 - no frost- and heading into Cove, back down into low 30s with very heavy frost.
Great illustration how colder, heavier air sinks or seeps into valleys. I know it is not unusual, just cool to note.
Hoping we see some winter weather soon!
Traveled from Cherokee, NC to Cades Cove this morning … 7 to 9:15 or so. Temps in Cherokee ranged anywhere from 28-31 or so with very heavy frost. Across New Found Gap, temps were up to 40-41 - no frost- and heading into Cove, back down into low 30s with very heavy frost.
Great illustration how colder, heavier air sinks or seeps into valleys. I know it is not unusual, just cool to note.
Hoping we see some winter weather soon!
StormWatch
Member
JB mentioned in a tweet earlier that similar to 13 14 could be on the way. I would go streaking in front of his house singing Feliz navidad if that came close to happening this winter. That's how confident I wont have to do that
. That's how confident I wont have to do that 
That means he is suggesting that a PV disruption could happen, which is true. A PV disruption could be imminent sometime in early/mid Jan.
Exactly, the "what if's" layout endless possibilities, in depth discussions and can help determine the best possible outcomes.
I like it - it's getting better. We won't know how exactly this will turn out until it's in the 5 day window or less. CAD events can be very difficult to forecast in advance because of mesoscale features (particularly temp. profiles) that can't really be narrowed down precisely on non-mesoscale models. Mesoscale models are on a much higher resolution, so the CAD can be underestimated on the non-mesoscale models in advance.
Hmmm
This is getting real close to something
oh wow euro has a nice Miller A winter storm for 85/NW 
oh wow
Yes ? 
You gotta love -NAOs
Ollie Williams Special!
StormWatch
Member
Glad to see the Euro on board of the winter storm. Looks like the prediction may come true after all. Watch for trends here on out! I think the GFS will eventually be robust like the 0z Euro, or increasingly robust.
