Pattern December to Remember

[tennessee storm]

Parties over boys View attachment 97855View attachment 97856

Wrong. Party just begun lol

 

[tennessee storm]

Seems like all the cold air pretty much coming down still seems be in fantasy land , models trying to do some more head fakes on us afraid

 

[Broken024]

Fwiw, January 10-11 2011 is in this composite

View attachment 97863

This map is approved by south of 85ers

 

[Ollie Williams]

Fwiw, January 10-11 2011 is in this composite

View attachment 97863

Here’s what the first 2 weeks of Jan 2011 looked like:

 

[TheBatman]

Here’s what the first 2 weeks of Jan 2011 looked like:
View attachment 97864

I can’t remember was that year a La Niña year also??

 

[Chazwin]

This map is approved by south of 85ers

and we would deserve after the last 7 years

 

[Chazwin]

I can’t remember was that year a La Niña year also??

Yes it was

 

[GaWx]

I can’t remember was that year a La Niña year also??

Yes

Here’s the even more beautiful ending of the ? to ?18z GEFS: cold almost here and maybe in time for New Year’s!! Mack and that Montana poster already freezing their asses off.

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Here’s what the first 2 weeks of Jan 2011 looked like:
View attachment 97864

Yeah I thought Jan 2011 was a -PNA. I'm thinking Feb 2014 was a -PNA too but doesn't match because it didn't have a -NAO. Am I correct?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yeah I thought Jan 2011 was a -PNA. I'm thinking Feb 2014 was a -PNA too but doesn't match because it didn't have a -NAO. Am I correct?

Sort of, here was its evolution:

 

[GaWx]

While most of the US turns cold at the end of the 18Z GEFS, look how cold Europe is/this is no coincidence as that’s a product of the -NAO/-AO:

 

[Mr. Golf]

While most of the US turns cold at the end of the 18Z GEFS, look how cold Europe is/this is no coincidence as that’s a product of the -NAO/-AO:

View attachment 97868

Larry, save this reply because it may be used later. If the alutian ridge dont shift east, if we dont get a -nao that more central or west based, and dont get the mjo orbit, we will get glancing blows and no real cold that lasts more than what we have seen. It will be chasing unicorns unfortunately

 

[SnowNiner]

Here’s what the first 2 weeks of Jan 2011 looked like:
View attachment 97864

I choose that one. West based -NAO and CONUS trough, not dumping everything out west. PV pushed really far south. Looks like a split flow STJ too. Hopefully we eventually get there in January.

 

[tennessee storm]

Larry, save this reply because it may be used later. If the alutian ridge dont shift east, if we dont get a -nao that more central or west based, and dont get the mjo orbit, we will get glancing blows and no real cold that lasts more than what we have seen. It will be chasing unicorns unfortunately

Like putting the ole carrot ? on string In front the old donkey. Make poor thing chase it lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, this is what Nov-Dec-Jan -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO days look like when the also occur in a La Nina winter w/ phase 6, 7, or 8 MJO.

View attachment 97860

View attachment 97862

Here's an animation of this same composite at -5 thru +20 lag. It's not perfect by any means, but I believe the overall idea here is correct. Lots of ups and downs the next couple weeks or so, a small warm-up at positive lag in response to the retrograding -EPO, but then the pattern turns very favorable for cold/snow about a week or two after that (which translates to early-mid January here).

 

[snowvol]

Well pacific still has a lot work to me get there to get nothing but glancing in and out cold moving forward … I would be very cautiously optimistic for sure …

Larry, save this reply because it may be used later. If the alutian ridge dont shift east, if we dont get a -nao that more central or west based, and dont get the mjo orbit, we will get glancing blows and no real cold that lasts more than what we have seen. It will be chasing unicorns unfortunately

Lot’s of if’s there, just sayin.

 

[Stormdoc]

I choose that one. West based -NAO and CONUS trough, not dumping everything out west. PV pushed really far south. Looks like a split flow STJ too. Hopefully we eventually get there in January.

Very frustrating storm for the Triangle. Snow just fizzled and died as it moved east like it hit a wall. I would still take that pattern in a heartbeat and take my chances the second time.

 

[Metwannabe]

Already 33.5, another mega frost alert, extra time to defrost windshields in the am

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Already 33.5, another mega frost alert, extra time to defrost windshields in the am

Yep. Already below my forecast low for tonight.

 

[Mr. Golf]

JB mentioned in a tweet earlier that similar to 13 14 could be on the way. I would go streaking in front of his house singing Feliz navidad if that came close to happening this winter??. That's how confident I wont have to do that ?‍?