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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Some changes in the eps through 192 but nothing eye popping
ATLwxfan
Member
Meh 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Verbatim this isn't far off from something pretty good. It's a transitory pattern w/ bouts of warm and cold marked by potential CAD events.
What fro said
I don't think you can hate that look if you live roughly along the I40 corridor, in the wedge regions, and even in the eastern Carolinas. Good potential to string out some fronts and overrun here as long as we don't drop systems too far down the WCVerbatim this isn't far off from something pretty good. It's a transitory pattern w/ bouts of warm and cold marked by potential CAD events.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like lots of back and forth (probably seasonable-seasonably warm overall here verbatim), but yeah it's not that far off from being a good pattern.
EPS is having a hard time w/ the -NAO
Not terrible
SnowNiner
Member
Would love to see the Atlantic block shift west. It looks like it wants to stay east based so far. That would help I think too considering the pacific ridge is so far west.
I just looked at the individual members. The ones that are cold around here Christmas day are generally warm after Christmas and the ones that warm Christmas day are cold after. Good timesLooks like lots of back and forth (probably seasonable-seasonably warm overall here verbatim), but yeah it's not that far off from being a good pattern.
EPS is having a hard time w/ the -NAO
Mr. Golf
Member
Too much ridging in the aleutians and nao is too east based. If that stays like that, it will be tough sledding for our area. Hopefully the mjo can traverse past 7 or somehow get a setup that favors cold for a little while
Huge shift in the Euro Weeklies! @Webberweather53
Much more of a -NAO!
Last Thurdays’s Run
Today’s Run:
Much more of a -NAO!
Last Thurdays’s Run
Today’s Run:
Model consensus has MJO backing up to phase 6 before going back the normal counterclockwise route back through 7. More delays on eventually getting (hopefully) to 8. Extended Euro takes til January 10th and bc Euro doesn’t get there at all through the 30 day run! Even the bc GEFS doesn’t get there til 12/26.
Edit: GEFS suggests -NAO/-AO by late week and likely holding for awhile but PNA stays negative.
Edit: GEFS suggests -NAO/-AO by late week and likely holding for awhile but PNA stays negative.
Yeah I'm hoping that block can retrograde into west based. East based favors cutters and with that Pacific block too far west the SER is already going to try to rain on our parade and force cutters. Sure we may get lucky with perfectly time a Miller B/CAD event but if the Greenland block moves west I'd feel better.. Maybe an unpopular opinion here but I wish that Pacific ridge would weaken some if it's not going to move into a more favorable location. Then the -PNA and SER wouldn't try to flex as hard and we could deal with a less than ideal location of the NAO. The trade off would likely be less cold air available though. It just shows how difficult it is to get frozen precip here. There is no slam dunk pattern for us and a little luck is always involved. Good thing that it usually all comes together once or twice a year some kind of way.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My hunch is this RMM retrogression back into phase 6 is due to Tropical Storm Rai traversing westward over the NW Pacific and projecting onto the index
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'll gladly take phase 7, 8, or null in January, they're all good for winter weather in the Carolinas
It's amazing that the euro weekly looks good around New Years them manages to get better from 1/10-24