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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
60 as a low ?
smast16
Member
GFS gonna back off from next weeks Ice wonder what the gefs will show
The general pattern is still supportive of CAD tho
Yep. High is weaker and cold air source is warmer (at hour 156).
I definitely could see an ice storm brewing with that look. I despise ice though so im good
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Still icy near escarpment even with the HP about 5-7 mb lower.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This ridge over Scotland is almost exactly where u want it to be to develop -NAO 5-10 days later
Fig 2. from Yao & Lou (2017)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-017-7128-9.pdf
Fig 2. from Yao & Lou (2017)
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s00376-017-7128-9.pdf
Where in the GFS wheelhouse now it might be sniffing something out. Well see. Interesting trends no doubt.
^^Still have a CAD showing (just weaker). And it's also good (for once) we're still far out. Still time to trend back better (...or worse).
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS looks to be agreeing with the OP.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS going for the split.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS going for the split.
Been keeping tabs on this the last several days, the GEFS is definitely taking a step in the direction of PV disruption
Some of yall really make my brain hurt. You're looking at long range individual Ptype panes of a model that is going to change 4x per day. Stick with the larger pattern on the ensembles at longer ranges.
Gefs with more ridging in the nao region
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Trying to give us a 50/50 for ChristmasGEFS backing off on the warmer pattern it had around this time largely thanks to that stronger -NAO.
Woof mean is really flexing in the SE can to NAtl to Greenland corridor 