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Pattern December to Remember

Chazwin said:
I think you’re right about that. The cold building in Canada early on is the biggest difference to some of the blowtorches we’ve seen the last few years. It’s also the reason why many on this board could score in the pattern that Webb and others have been talking about, even if we never see a long lasting +PNA. Another thing to keep in mind is that given the fact that we are in a LaNina, I don’t see any scenario in which the SE can expect to go more than about 8-10 days below average, though there could multiple periods that length … some of the years that have been thrown out there with comparisons seem to follow that thinking. For example… many will remember the stretch in 1996 from 1/5-1/13 that saw two significant winter storms and below average temperatures for the whole period… however what’s forgotten is that right after that, a period of above normal temps happened as the SER flexed… in fact one of the big weather stories of that month was the flooding that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic and New England due to heavy rains and fast snow melt. That year after a mid to late January that was fairly mild for the SE, the first few days of February saw a major ice and snow event followed by an Arctic outbreak… then another warm up to average to above average temperatures
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Its definitely not unusual to see one swing to the next especially here in NC. I really do like having the cold on this side too as others have stated thats been missing most years.
 
Chazwin said:
I think you’re right about that. The cold building in Canada early on is the biggest difference to some of the blowtorches we’ve seen the last few years. It’s also the reason why many on this board could score in the pattern that Webb and others have been talking about, even if we never see a long lasting +PNA. Another thing to keep in mind is that given the fact that we are in a LaNina, I don’t see any scenario in which the SE can expect to go more than about 8-10 days below average, though there could multiple periods that length … some of the years that have been thrown out there with comparisons seem to follow that thinking. For example… many will remember the stretch in 1996 from 1/5-1/13 that saw two significant winter storms and below average temperatures for the whole period… however what’s forgotten is that right after that, a period of above normal temps happened as the SER flexed… in fact one of the big weather stories of that month was the flooding that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic and New England due to heavy rains and fast snow melt. That year after a mid to late January that was fairly mild for the SE, the first few days of February saw a major ice and snow event followed by an Arctic outbreak… then another warm up to average to above average temperatures
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Absolutely I can't see any scenario that we don't have windows of opportunity with the kind of cold that will be available. I feel the odds are it'll be Miller B/CAD threats. Which are good for us in these parts but for the I20 corridor the jury is still out. If we follow the progression of 17-18 everybody is in the game. I was 14 in 95-96 so my memory may be wrong, but it seems I remember it favored mainly I85 and north in the CAD regions
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Absolutely I can't see any scenario that we don't have windows of opportunity with the kind of cold that will be available. I feel the odds are it'll be Miller B/CAD threats. Which are good for us in these parts but for the I20 corridor the jury is still out. If we follow the progression of 17-18 everybody is in the game. I was 14 in 95-96 so my memory may be wrong, but it seems I remember it favored mainly I85 and north in the CAD regions
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The big storm in January of that year produced down into the eastern NC Piedmont and most of the SC upstate, though the big totals were definitely 85 and NW. The early February storm brought snow all the way to the coast on the backside… I think Savannah actually got a couple inches
 
olhausen said:
If by better you mean the southeast will be 30 or more degrees warmer on average then yes we will have a better winter. As far as snow you must be pulling our legs. I’d imagine you’ll have multiple weeks that would take years for most of us to equal in snow accumulation and snow days.
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Just so you know I’ve only been here two years now from Alabama so in terms of knowing how much snow this area usually gets or it’s history I don’t have all the details but I only was trying to bring some positivity when I said I hope you guys have a better winter than me because you guys down south deserve it especially since I can relate to that after living in Alabama most of all my 31 years of life on this earth… if this is banter sorry don’t mean to intrude
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Lol I tend to get a little cranky when it's been over 3 years since I've had snow stick and stay around past 10am. By the way my average is 6 inches. I've had 1.9 the past 3 years. Lol

But on a serious note I'm definitely not punting anything. It'll be a chance to track something decent. We may kick the can a little farther, who knows at this point?

Saw a post yesterday from a respected poster that said "there is a lot of excitement over orange and reds over the SE" lol
That was so true. We're looking very hard for hope in the long range. While there are promising signs and analogs it's all just speculation at this point. The guy that posted that seems to just be laying low and not posting much right now. I think I'm going to follow his lead and lay low for a bit since some just want to hear how cold and snowy it's going to get very soon! Lol
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There’s no way you are averaging 6 inches a season. Nashville hardly averages 6 inches a year anymore. Many years ago maybe but not anymore.
 
Montanasnow30 said:
Just so you know I’ve only been here two years now from Alabama so in terms of knowing how much snow this area usually gets or it’s history I don’t have all the details but I only was trying to bring some positivity when I said I hope you guys have a better winter than me because you guys down south deserve it especially since I can relate to that after living in Alabama most of all my 31 years of life on this earth… if this is banter sorry don’t mean to intrude
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No worries I know you weren’t being rude. I like seeing you and Tarheel post about the weather way up north and how cold it gets. If I ever moved it’d be northeast Ohio where the temps moderate a little more. You guys live in a freezer and even for someone like me who loves the cold that is just to cold for to long. Hopefully the pattern flips by early January so we can all enjoy some ❄️
 
cd2play said:
We are one system away last February from coming off 3 consecutive seasons with no snows over 1". I'm so glad we cashed in last February!
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History said that you were due to cash out last February. I know here CLT has now gone two consecutive winters with less than an inch of snow for the season… officially there’s never been more 3 consecutive winters without at least 1 inch of snow, so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.
 
olhausen said:
No worries I know you weren’t being rude. I like seeing you and Tarheel post about the weather way up north and how cold it gets. If I ever moved it’d be northeast Ohio where the temps moderate a little more. You guys live in a freezer and even for someone like me who loves the cold that is just to cold for to long. Hopefully the pattern flips by early January so we can all enjoy some ❄️
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Trust me if it wasn’t for my job offering me more money to relocate up this way I would of stayed in Alabama in a heart beat especially after considering how last winter up here went… I felt like an icebox the entire winter not to mention how cold the wind was it was insane…. But as for as posting I mostly like to come on here and read because I learn so much from you guys and sometimes it takes away from me posting things on here but if I can I’ll try to post more often…
 
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