As many times as we've done this progression or something very similar over the last decade I'm surprised people are getting so concerned tbh.
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Lol I tend to get a little cranky when it's been over 3 years since I've had snow stick and stay around past 10am. By the way my average is 6 inches. I've had 1.9 the past 3 years. Lol
But on a serious note I'm definitely not punting anything. It'll be a chance to track something decent. We may kick the can a little farther, who knows at this point?
Saw a post yesterday from a respected poster that said "there is a lot of excitement over orange and reds over the SE" lol
That was so true. We're looking very hard for hope in the long range. While there are promising signs and analogs it's all just speculation at this point. The guy that posted that seems to just be laying low and not posting much right now. I think I'm going to follow his lead and lay low for a bit since some just want to hear how cold and snowy it's going to get very soon! Lol
I mean I get it and if you want a snow/ice event over the next 2 weeks chances are it's not happening. That said these epo events aren't always an immediate cold and snow dump into the SE and often have a life cycle involved that goes warm-->variable-->cold. I'll start getting concerned if we see the models start losing the epo/nao in consecutive runs in the future. Right now it's watch it evolve and build and enjoy the ride for me
Sorry I started all that. I was just analyzing the EPS someone posted. Not saying it wasn't going to get cold. I really do hate that Aluetian ridge being there and being that strong. Kinda suggests maybe a delay longer than expected. But I don't keep track of past patterns like some of you guys on here. That ridge may be common in this progression.
It’s all good, just agreeing with your last post. Here lately it’s been all gloom and doom in here unfortunately.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I have a hard time believing your average is 6". Charlotte averages only 3.5".
No you are fine your concerns aren't off base or anything and the late hours of the eps verbatim aren't that great looking
It won’t be 6” the next time they go up a decade! It’ll be down to 4” atleast
Serious question here. Isn't this -EPO more of a jacked up Aleutian ridge extending up into the EPO domain causing it to technically be negative? I thought a true -EPO was further north than that? I remember getting fooled by that last year in December when the NAO was technically negative but it was really just a big ridge frying Canada.
Somebody can post a map of the domain for the various indexes if they want, but I think you're right. We talk a lot about negative this or that, but the shape and location of the anomalies matter.
Also, it seems pretty likely that it's going to warm up. Anything beyond two weeks involves a lot of hoping things work out in our favor. But if they are to do that, we'll start to see some consistency later in in the guidance. If we keep seeing yellows and oranges over the SE, then we'll know how things are progressing. I mean things have progressed well at times over the last several years from what's being shown, but we'll need to start seeing something in the next couple of weeks.
The good thing is Canada is an icebox. Those key features can't stay parked where they are all winter. Even though modeling is ugly we still seem in better shape than last year where we had to spend most of January getting Canada cold again. It won't take much movement of those indices to go into the freezer.
It's certainly west of what we want/need but it's a pretty classic look
BHS1975
Member
Hopefully we get the PV dump this time.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Welp, for you all who want the transition to "cooler" temps to arrive sooner than later, you better hope the 18z GFS was a fluke...
We know, @SoutheastRidge. We know.
I think you’re right about that. The cold building in Canada early on is the biggest difference to some of the blowtorches we’ve seen the last few years. It’s also the reason why many on this board could score in the pattern that Webb and others have been talking about, even if we never see a long lasting +PNA. Another thing to keep in mind is that given the fact that we are in a LaNina, I don’t see any scenario in which the SE can expect to go more than about 8-10 days below average, though there could multiple periods that length … some of the years that have been thrown out there with comparisons seem to follow that thinking. For example… many will remember the stretch in 1996 from 1/5-1/13 that saw two significant winter storms and below average temperatures for the whole period… however what’s forgotten is that right after that, a period of above normal temps happened as the SER flexed… in fact one of the big weather stories of that month was the flooding that occurred in the Mid-Atlantic and New England due to heavy rains and fast snow melt. That year after a mid to late January that was fairly mild for the SE, the first few days of February saw a major ice and snow event followed by an Arctic outbreak… then another warm up to average to above average temperatures
Even today's "cool down" ended up with a high above average at DFW (60*F). ?
Back up we go to near 70*F tomorrow! lol...
Back up we go to near 70*F tomorrow! lol...
That’s ok, the more reliable 18Z GEFS is holding its own and actually has the intense cold advancing the furthest of any recent run into the MW late in the run:
Which, as you know Larry, is all we need to worry about right now.