Thanks for posting! This looks fantastic. I do want to caution folks that the WxBell 2M anomalies are almost always way too extreme on both ends for some reason.
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Thanks for posting! This looks fantastic. I do want to caution folks that the WxBell 2M anomalies are almost always way too extreme on both ends for some reason.
To me it seems like the Aluetian ridge is going to have to come east, or the -NAO retrograde to west based. And the models could very well be off with the placement and strength of the -NAO but that Aluetian ridge has became a pita lately and it's probably modeled correctly. Again I'm not doubting the pros and hope for a late Dec flip. I'm just cautiously optimistic and basing my thoughts on experience in watching patterns and models for the last 15 years.
tennessee storm
Member
Well pacific still has a lot work to me get there to get nothing but glancing in and out cold moving forward … I would be very cautiously optimistic for sure …
For example, these WxBell maps which are in degrees C have some SE areas going from 27 F AN one five day period to 30 F BN the next five day period! So, the best thing to do is to look at the overall idea of the anomalies rather than assuming the actual numbers resemble reality.
Edit: they are in degrees F, not C. My error. But they still look way too extreme to me going from +15 the first 5 day period to -17 the next with the SE at the bottom of the cold. I’ve compared these maps to the ones I get on older runs and they were inflated then vs my maps.
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Yeah I'm just trying not to set myself up for disappointment. This could progress quite nicely but just taking it verbatim today for arguments sake it could end up like last February for the southeast where it never gets past the mountains. You in western TN have less to be concerned about imo. What's almost certain is some of the coldest anominales in the world are in NA and will undoubtedly move to the lower 48. Who gets it is just going to depend on where exactly the EPO and NAO setup. I don't think the PNA is going to offer any help at all.
I just would like to have a January near normal instead of another torch. I’m not looking for anything more. With what I’m seeing, that is attainable. If you’re looking for more, be prepared for disappointment. We may not even get the near normal but that seems like a decent possibility imo.
Now from Chicago to NYC, the cold could get pretty extreme!
Average temps for Jan is definitely attainable. I would think a -NAO would definitely make that possible even east based. I think some are expecting Jan 18, Jan 02 and Jan 96 and we're going to see a big storm and Arctic cold based solely on the progression of the MJO matching those years. While that can't be ruled out I have my doubts by what I see as of now.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think I speak for most when I say Chicago to NYC can keep the extreme. I just want it cold enough to snow.
accu35
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As long as you have your doubts, rest of us on the board will be waiting for a miracle.
12z CFS has a generous Miller A right after New Years … tis the season
Winter storms are always a crapshoot in the SE. But at least there’d be a shot, especially for the main CAD areas and TN.
Welp, we have one more week to go before the days start getting longer again! 
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I'm ready. Can't wait for the 9pm sunsets !Welp, we have one more week to go before the days start getting longer again!
Avalanche
Member
Yep. Sun angle coming into play.Welp, we have one more week to go before the days start getting longer again!
My posts are not meant to be pessimistic. They're meant to be realistic by current data. I guess you fall into that category I was speaking of that has unrealistic expectations? It will probably get cold and snow at some point in the southeast because it's normal for it to do so in a lot of areas. I wouldn't call that a miracle. A miracle would be another March 93, Jan 2000, Feb 1973 or a Arctic outbreak like Jan 1985. Now if thats what you mean by waiting on a miracle you're going to most likely have a long wait!
Mr. Golf
Member
I would like to see a west based nao, especially if the aleutian ridge will end up that far west. Hopefully we aren't chasing unicorns again and can get a legitimate pattern shift for cold regime at least for a while while the mjo has shifted
Username is definitely checking out right now, lol...
I’m not too concerned about the -NAO. I think the main benefit associated with a west-based NAO is the 50/50 low, which has been showing up on the models. In contrast, I remember last December chasing a pattern with a -NAO that didn’t have a 50/50 low. That was a dud.
Mr. Golf
Member
We just want it cold enough for winter weather. Nothing extreme.
iGRXY
Member
Definitely think CAD areas in the western Piedmont, upstate, and NE Georgia will see a winter storm, maybe 2, between the very end of December through mid January. Problem is I think we’re due for a legit ice storm and the pattern setting up is going to be almost perfect for one. This pattern is almost identical to what is needed to setup strong CADs but also form miller B’s. Hopefully since we’ve really froze Canada and the core of the PV will be over the NE, we can really get a good upper 1030s type high to build over and maybe cool the column enough for snow. But ice is what I’m expecting and worry about.