Looks like I need to head to the NC state game in el Paso
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If I start the thread that low is in Maryland at 0zStart the thread
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Or during a relaxation period, before the next 1060 drops in! I think a few runs of GFS, had multiple highs coming down after the initial Christmas one!?Only hope for precip is when the initial front moves in and is pressing up against the SE ridge with a SW . Other than that is squash city . I’d be happy with cold and dry . Beats a warm christmas
Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
Put antifreeze in the gas tank, that'll save it!I kind of hope it doesn't get that cold because I'm worried about my car not being able to start
During the January 1985 outbreak, my father's vehicle refused to start that morning due to the weather and I'm well far south of you. To this day, that's the only occurrence of such a thing happening to anyone that I know.I kind of hope it doesn't get that cold because I'm worried about my car not being able to start
I remember my parents telling me during the Jan 1985 outbreak their car wouldn't startDuring the January 1985 outbreak, my father's vehicle refused to start that morning due to the weather and I'm well far south of you. To this day, that's the only occurrence of such a thing happening to anyone that I know.
Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
that will save the radiator, but doesn't mean it will start...my cousins in Minnesota have to use a heater to keep the engine warm enough to startPut antifreeze in the gas tank, that'll save it!
remember it really well... minus 10 here for low nashiville got down to minus 17 for low broke records... except there were about 10 inches of snow on the ground here when that artic out break took place.... very snowy winter that yearI remember my parents telling me during the Jan 1985 outbreak their car wouldn't start
None of what I said necessarily means this pattern will not produce a big outbreak of arctic air in the southeastern US and it shouldn't be taken out of context as such, but people need to temper their expectations a little bit on the specifics of this airmass, surely it will be quite cold, but there's a lot of uncertainty on exactly how cold and all of the aforementioned reasons wrt canonical GFS biases (among other things) should make one more cautious for at least a few more days...
Is there enough snow cover to the north to allow for such an arctic airmass to get that far south ? I would think that snow cover would be an important factor.
yea the pv dropped down into the ohio valley.... crazyThe PV dropping into the US on the 18z GFS is reminiscent of the Jan 1985 arctic outbreak mass dump thump ...
And unlike 1983, the month after the 1985 shot (i.e., Feb) didn't go warm ...The PV dropping into the US on the 18z GFS is reminiscent of the Jan 1985 arctic outbreak mass dump thump ...
Speaking of Barrow, AK they are forecast to be in the mid 20s over the next week or so. Pretty remarkable.You're right, we've seen this plenty of times where the GFS shows stupid cold in L-MR but it eventually corrects itself. Not saying that it still wouldn't be bitterly cold, just not Barrow, Alaska cold .
It is a shame because it's not a horrible set up just lacking a good cold air source....If I start the thread that low is in Maryland at 0z
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