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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

tennessee storm said:
Actually a little se ridge be good to be honest
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Yeah, that's a big negative. However, I'm already preparing myself to be in the inevitable Georgia screw zone for any potential event around Christmas. The SE ridge will either still be holding strong, the cold air won't make it here on time, the low placement will be in a position not conducive for supporting frozen precipitation in my area, or the precipitation will dry up at the Georgia border! It happens 95% of the time!
 
The differences between the GFS & Euro with and without a monstrous recurving typhoon east of the Philippines are pretty dramatic... Note the amplification of the wave pattern is considerably higher in the GFS w/ the typhoon vs the Euro which shows a more modest TC pushing into the east China Sea. The GFS biases to overamplify and quickly hand off tropical cyclones into the mid latitude westerlies certainly leave me really skeptical of its more extreme solution after day 5 and and subsequent troughing & cold in the eastern US near & after Christmas. Again, in laymen, if the GFS is too strong and apt to recurve this potential typhoon, then the ridge over the Canadian Rockies and trough near the Lakes after day 7 will be nowhere near as strong and/or relatively nonexistent and we may be left w/ a SE US ridge encapsulating most of the region instead of a pattern loaded with a ton of cold air and potential winter storms as we approach Christmas and New Years...

gfs_z500a_npac_41.png
ecmwf_z500a_npac_41.png
 
pcbjr said:
Almost ... :eek:
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We'll get some sleet down to you, sooner, or later :) After Xmas things will pick up climo wise. Meanwhile, it just feels like winter now. Must be my old age thin skin, but cold gets me now, and I used to revel in it. Soo...if cold feels colder to me now, won't that make sleet more likely when it starts to precipitate? If it feels cold, it must be cold :)
 
dsaur said:
We'll get some sleet down to you, sooner, or later :) After Xmas things will pick up climo wise. Meanwhile, it just feels like winter now. Must be my old age thin skin, but cold gets me now, and I used to revel in it. Soo...if cold feels colder to me now, won't that make sleet more likely when it starts to precipitate? If it feels cold, it must be cold :)
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I threw climo out the window after getting 8" of snow in Early December lol. I'm like you though, the older I get the more cold seems to take a toll on me. Although heat does the same. I really just want comfortable temps year round with a dose of snow thrown in occasionally :)
 
Don't forget, I'll be putting out a new video today on my YouTube channel about what could turn out with the weather around Christmas time. Btw, the 12z GFS is coming out now!
 
I'm not liking the 12Z GFS so far (162) with its strong SER. Western ridge too far west for my liking. We need a good +PNA. That is not at all what the model is showing so far.
 
Let's see what the bowling ball does on this run. If it doesn't fizzle out some, might be a step back towards the delayed fronts and eventual cutters that we saw earlier.
 
Well reading over Webb's post above about the GFS with the recurving west pac hurricane and looking at the 12z GFS, it still has that happening so may lead to some cold east but after Christmas... we shall see.
gfs_z500a_npac_31.png
 
The SE is warmer than the 0Z because the 12Z GFS has a cut-off low over the SW US instead of phasing with north-central US trough.
 
The SW cut off low is really hurting the SE. Compare to the 0Z GFS, which doesn't have it and consequently is much colder in the SE.
 
The 6z actually brought back the bowling ball/cutoff instead of having it fizzle out completely but there was some ice later in the SE.
 
If it's going to weaken, it has to soon or this is going to resemble past runs that eventually become a cutter after a long duration winter storm in Texas.
 
Look at the past 4 GFS runs as of 12/24. The only one that doesn't have the stubborn SER is the only one that has no SW US low, the 0Z.
 
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