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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Have a feeling 0z GFS will show the snow and ice in TX and OK again then the Euro will start to fall in line. Congrats Amarillo and OKC should be amazing spending the holidays w/o power
 
Huntsville
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The model that can get a handle on this upcoming pattern first, will have more weight for me during the remainder of winter. There are a lot of things going on right now with regards to the forecasts over the next two weeks, and I would not rule anything out. What seems locked in is the cold signal in the center of the country. I still don't think the models are handling that energy in the SW very well. That's the piece that needs to get sorted out. As it stands right now we are trailing in this ballgame, but it's only in the 3rd inning.Still a lot of different looks to go before Christmas. Don't cliff-dive yet....
 
It would be something if we saw that typhoon actually recurve. If it does, forget everything that we've seen in the last few days.
 
The typhoon doesnt necessarily have to recurve to have a pretty substantial impact on our pattern obviously it will be much larger if it recurves because the poleward momentum fluxes and meridional displacement of the jet would be pretty insane but it's harder to get a storm to fully recurve like we see earlier in the fall because the mid-latitude waveguide is so strong/mature at this time of the year. Even without a recurve, having a typhoon there would deposit a lot of heat/momentum into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet and generate a huge upper level, diabatically-induced anticyclone to the northeast over the subtropical North Pacific...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The typhoon doesnt necessarily have to recurve to have a pretty substantial impact on our pattern obviously it will be much larger if it recurves because the poleward momentum fluxes and meridional displacement of the jet would be pretty insane but it's harder to get a storm to fully recurve like we see earlier in the fall because the mid-latitude waveguide is so strong/mature at this time of the year. Even without a recurve, having a typhoon there would deposit a lot of heat/momentum into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet and generate a huge upper level, diabatically-induced anticyclone to the northeast over the subtropical North Pacific...
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Its amazing how Typhoon effects our weather.
 
Also important to keep in mind there could be more than one typhoon in the NW Pacific basin with Kai-Tak over the South China Sea. This typhoon changes the downstream mid-latitude response because the Rossby Wave packet emanating from Kai-Tak would interfere with the one associated w/ the typhoon forecasted to develop later next week from this strong mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) Wave just north of Papua/New Guinea, to what extent we really don't know, and we also don't know if this MRG wave will produce a typhoon in the first place.
ecmwf_mslpa_wpac_8.png
 
accu35 said:
Its amazing how Typhoon effects our weather.
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It certainly is but the physical mechanism linking the MJO, ENSO, and these typhoons to our mid-latitude weather is actually the same in a general sense. As I've said here on this blog time and time again, these sources of diabatic heating from these phenomena due to the convection associated with them, force Rossby Wave Trains and wave packets that propagate into the mid-latitudes, the frequencies are just different w/ ENSO and the MJO. Thus, the impacts from the MJO and ENSO are harder to see without bandpass filtering, smoothing, or averaging of the extratropical circulation anomalies, however their fingerprints are still evident in our pattern even in this instance.
 
For what it's worth.... At some point this winter, there's going to be more opportunities. It may not be in time for Christmas, or late December, etc. But our winter is not over... it will return.. We will get up to bat again this winter.
 
deltadog03 said:
Webb, that recurving typhoon would add monkey wrench
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Yeah it definitely could, it's also probably not going to be alone and the only wrench in our pattern w/ Kai-Tak eventually getting into the South China Sea & potentially even the Bay of Bengal down the road if its core can stay away from Cambodia and Vietnam.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The typhoon doesnt necessarily have to recurve to have a pretty substantial impact on our pattern obviously it will be much larger if it recurves because the poleward momentum fluxes and meridional displacement of the jet would be pretty insane but it's harder to get a storm to fully recurve like we see earlier in the fall because the mid-latitude waveguide is so strong/mature at this time of the year. Even without a recurve, having a typhoon there would deposit a lot of heat/momentum into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet and generate a huge upper level, diabatically-induced anticyclone to the northeast over the subtropical North Pacific...
Click to expand...

This point is made even more evident by the most recent GFS forecast out to about 144 hours, well before this typhoon in the Western Pacific would recurve (if at all), you can already see there's a lot of anticyclonic curvature to the North Pacific Jet just NE of the typhoon and its already generating a pretty substantial RW packet.
gfs_uv200_wpac_25.png
 
Parts of the SE may be in the crosshairs of ice per this run if something gets going. Ruh roh.
 
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