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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

You can see that H up in the NE trying to set up a CAD...
gfs_mslpa_us_36.png

gfs_T2m_us_36.png
 
The funny thing is, this is actually a south trend but if the sw stays strong I know where this is going eventually compared to previous runs.

It finally weakens at 216 I think.

Edit: nerp, it strengthens again. So this is going to be another delay GLC I think.
 
GaWx said:
Look at the past 4 GFS runs as of 12/24. The only one that doesn't have the stubborn SER is the only one that has no SW US low, the 0Z.
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Here's an easy way to do that:

Click this link; open; choose GFS in the upper right and use your cursor to hover once the past runs load -

http://www.wxforecaster.com/runtorun/all.html

PS - This is also in Wiki (and has been since we set it up) so if anyone ever needs it again, go to Wiki>Models>Run to Run
 
Canadian doing the cutoff, and setting up, in most likelihood, a winter storm for Texas on Christmas day or so. 1054 HP coming overhead.
 
GaWx said:
The SW cut off low is really hurting the SE. Compare to the 0Z GFS, which doesn't have it and consequently is much colder in the SE.
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true but with it as we saw in the 00z gfs we get a cold front blasting through and we are dry . I think I'd rather take my chances with the cold push against the SER . We are still a few days away from having a good idea which way we are heading
 
Brent said:
I wonder if the 0z GFS was a fluke

almost every other run has looked similar to this one
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No doubt in my mind the SW US low is very bad for the SE US and allows the SER to persist. Was the 0Z GFS, the only one without it a fluke?
 
pcbjr said:
Here's an easy way to do that:

Click this link; open; choose GFS in the upper right and use your cursor to hover once the past runs load -

http://www.wxforecaster.com/runtorun/all.html

PS - This is also in Wiki (and has been since we set it up) so if anyone ever needs it again, go to Wiki>Models>Run to Run
Click to expand...
Kinda see it here too
e29f2c268557a3465e8ec50ab265dee3.gif


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
true but with it as we saw in the 00z gfs we get a cold front blasting through and we are dry . I think I'd rather take my chances with the cold push against the SER . We are still a few days away from having a good idea which way we are heading
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I'd prefer cold and dry/no SER to this SER mess.
 
GaWx said:
No doubt in my mind the SW US low is very bad for the SE US and allows the SER to persist. Was the 0Z GFS, the only one without it a fluke?
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maybe I missed a 6z run showing it but I cant remember another one in the last couple of days
 
I'm with Charlie part of Tx and Arkansas in a great spot right now, if any thing this battle zone will be a touch more SE so I think those guys, Brent, are sitting pretty.
 
Doesn't a SER create those crazy scenarios where you can have a 20-30 temp swing literally miles away on each side of the front? Those are fun for sure.
 
Soooo in this one the cutoff low persisted so long it just suddenly dissipated...hmm where have I seen this before *coughing* March 2009 *coughing*. #stillbitter

I don't think the cutoff is bad, but it needs to weaken at a much earlier point or we get this result.
 
History tells me that the SER is stubborn BUT so is true arctic air..... seen these battle zones more than a few times in my life and nailing down where it sets up is a brutal task 5 days out let alone 10
 
GaWx said:
Not if you like it cold in the SE. 20-30 temp swing 500 miles to my west? How exciting! ;)
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I wasn't meaning like a strong SER, just a small one I guess. I seemingly remember a few in 2013-14 where it was 80 degrees at 5pm and by midnight it was in the low 40s, upper 30s.
 
Storm5 said:
not a fan of the 12z gfs overall. Thank thank God it won't verify like this run
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This run was an utter disaster for most on the board. (I don't care if the 11-15 isn't warm..that part of the run is unreliable and the more reliable 6-10 stinks.)The good news: it can't get much worse if you like cold. So, look for better runs ahead lol.
 
I think we'll probably have a cutoff low but it needs to weaken/get picked up by the northern stream or it might just sit there and sit there until it dissipates.
 
For anyone who missed it, here is the 00z EPS for Christmas Day:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
How do you know it won't verify like this run ?
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The thing is, this is still 10 days away, there's a signal for something in the South. Who, where, and what is still to be answered and models are gonna be all over the place as we've seen this past week. We could end up with severe weather, who knows, still a long ways out.
 
GaWx said:
This run was an utter disaster for most on the board. (I don't care if the 11-15 isn't warm..that part of the run is unreliable and the more reliable 6-10 stinks.)The good news: it can't get much worse if you like cold. So, look for better runs ahead lol.
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I'm assuming bad also for the Ohio Valley. I keep seeing people mention areas way out west but nobody mentions the Ohio Valley.
 
So many model runs to go with many different solutions. Way to early to tell.
 
RollTide18 said:
The thing is, this is still 10 days away, there's a signal for something in the South. Who, where, and what is still to be answered and models are gonna be all over the place as we've seen this past week. We could end up with severe weather, who knows, still a long ways out.
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Although the "ridge of doom" is showing up, it still can be chilly and drizzly just to mess up the kid's new bike day. In other words, just enough nasty and cold to make Christmas ruined.
 
RollTide18 said:
The thing is, this is still 10 days away, there's a signal for something in the South. Who, where, and what is still to be answered and models are gonna be all over the place as we've seen this past week. We could end up with severe weather, who knows, still a long ways out.
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We could end up with severe or a winterstorm.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I'm assuming bad also for the Ohio Valley. I keep seeing people mention areas way out west but nobody mentions the Ohio Valley.
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By the time those storms are up that way, we've written them off for here. A lot of Climo shows that Texas storms can translate towards us.
 
GaWx said:
So, we have to forecast for IN now?:confused:
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Well if you're going to forecast for Texas and Oklahoma might as well forecast for Indiana too.... Heck you're closer to Indiana than you are Texas. Also, some people consider Indiana to be a southern state :)
 
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