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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
For anyone who missed it, here is the 00z EPS for Christmas Day:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png
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western parts of the southeast can score with that look . eastern parts not so much. good news is the eps is trending colder overall each run
 
Well, SoutheastRidge, with whatever the 12z GFS did, there wasn't even a big storm like we saw previously. You do get to see some snow but not much and it's not with what we've been focusing on.

But of course, it's hard to take the GFS as gospel.
 
Storm5 said:
western parts of the southeast can score with that look . eastern parts not so much. good news is the eps is trending colder overall each run
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Until I see that cutoff moving, I'll wane any expectation of Wintry weather around these parts, lol. Hey, maybe it will go up to INDIANA! Since you know, Indiana isn't spoken about much on here.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well, SoutheastRidge, with whatever the 12z GFS did, there wasn't even a big storm like we saw previously. You do get to see some snow but not much and it's not with what we've been focusing on.

But of course, it's hard to take the GFS as gospel.
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Thank you !
 
So I’m willing to bet that the EPS continue to trend cold for those that are going all in with them.


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Well I should correct myself, there was a big storm, but it was southern plains only and since the cutoff just sat there for so long since it wasn't picked up by the northern stream, it eventually just dissipated.

And I have very much seen something like this happen before. March 2009. It stunk. Cutoffs/bowling balls are a funny game to play with. They can either make you very happy, or angry at the weather gods.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Well I should correct myself, there was a big storm, but it was southern plains only and since the cutoff just sat there for so long since it wasn't picked up by the northern stream, it eventually just dissipated.

And I have very much seen something like this happen before. March 2009. It stunk. Cutoffs/bowling balls are a funny game to play with. They can either make you very happy, or angry at the weather gods.
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I totally got screwed from the March 2009 storm. It snowed for hours and we even had a lot of thunder, but it had trouble sticking. Ended up with about 1/2"
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I totally got screwed from the March 2009 storm. It snowed for hours and we even had a lot of thunder, but it had trouble sticking. Ended up with about 1/2"
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Better snow TV than watching a snow shield sit stalled out a half a county to a county away from you for about 4-6 hours because the cutoff stalled and then got choked off moisture wise.
 
Dont think Kai Tak is gonna recurve. forecast is for it to strengthen a little more, maybe cat 1 before landfalling phillipines and disapating. Theres another wave on its heels that may strengthen into a TS but I think we need them to turn hard right in order to shake things up this way, kick the SW bowling ball on out and face slap the SER. Right Webber?
 
The GFS' sub vortex scale convective feedback problems in the tropics are really apparent on this run, certainly makes one skeptical of its forecast for this strong Mixed Rossby Gravity wave to develop as quickly as its advertising after day 3 (& thus its long range forecast and the GEFS should be called into question in the SE US)...
gfs_z850_vort_wpac_22.png
 
I don't care too much about a SW cutoff...the problem is when it remains connected to the longwave trough, which is kind of what we've been seeing when the models show the warmer solutions. The tendency either for that feature to remain connected to the trough or for this pattern of troughing reaching back into the SW over and over would be concerning, if you're looking for a cold SE. There's no doubt we will see periods of this this year. But the hope is, they will be short-lived and transitory. My guess is this instance will be.
 
big time over running winter storm for western parts of southeast on the 12z Euro. It's a gfs type look

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Some wedging down the Apps, it's trying, a cold rain special!
 
major winter storm Christmas day for Louisiana, Arkansas Mississippi and Tennessee
1ea976ce37e217db09ffddf21d1b8a90.jpg


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