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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
12z Euro for Christmas Day:

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ice ice
 
Storm5 said:
alot can and will change but I'd say your not alone. there will be many who will be left out . If I lived in Texas , Louisiana, Arkansas , NW Mississippi and western Tennessee I'd be pretty excited ( for ice most likely ) again that assuming H5 is correct and the front kinda stalls in that area . long way to go thougj
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We missed out on the last storm in NW MS so this should be interesting!
 
GaWx said:
Do you have today's EPO forecast updates from 0Z/12Z models? My source hasn't updated since yesterday. TIA
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12z Eps hasn't updated yet. The the GEFS 12z wasn't as aggressive as the 00z but still gets down to around -4

00z gefs
12z gefs
00z eps



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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
^Wow!! -4.6 0Z EPS!

Edit: A -4.6 -EPO peak would be 4th strongest peak since 1948!

Only the -5.0 of late 12/1983, the -4.8 of late Jan of 1963, and the -4.7 of late Feb of 1957 would be stronger.
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Wasn't 1983 a year where records were broken? Trying to remember when we got below zero. Maybe it was 1986?
 
GaWx said:
^Wow!! -4.6 0Z EPS!

Edit: A -4.6 -EPO peak would be 4th strongest peak since 1948!

Only the -5.0 of late 12/1983, the -4.8 of late Jan of 1963, and the -4.7 of late Feb of 1957 would be stronger.
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That's getting up into some rarified air right there :eek:
 
GaWx said:
Yes, 12/25/1983 had a 0 at KATL, the coldest on record for all of Dec. There were 3 record lows: 12/24, 25, and 26.
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Wow that's quite chilly! Hoping we don't repeat on the extreme cold since it's usually too dry. Although that may help increase the chances at a rare snow down your way.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, 12/25/1983 had a 0 at KATL, the coldest on record for all of Dec. There were 3 record lows: 12/24, 25, and 26.
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Larry,
That cold was in and out like a rocket here in '83, but the bottom fell out and the St. Johns River had ice on it Christmas night and the 26th (drove up to the parents for a first hand look) ...
Here's the summary:

Date -- High -- Average -- Low

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Then, only one freeze in Jan (on the 1st) and only one in Feb (on the 7th)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Given my druthers, I prefer long, sustained but not bitter cold ... the joy doesn't have time to sink in on a 3 day blast with warmth afterwards ... :cool:
 
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GaWx said:
^Wow!! -4.6 0Z EPS!

A -4.6 -EPO peak would be 4th strongest peak since 1948!

Only the -5.0 of late 12/1983, the -4.8 of late Jan of 1963, and the -4.7 of late Feb of 1957 would be stronger.
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So, 2 of these 3 most extreme -EPO periods were associated with SE EXTREME cold:

1. As mentioned, 12/1983, which had a -504 peak -EPO (strongest on record), gave ATL its coldest on record for all of Dec at 0!

2. The 2nd strongest -EPO peak, -483, was in Jan of 1963. ATL had a -3 record low on 1/24/1963, which was then the coldest for any day since the infamous 2/1899 severe cold!! This was also when the most consecutive days on record by a wide margin of sub -150 days occurred: there was a whopping 23 straight sub -150 EPO days! The 2nd longest is only 18.

3. The period when the -EPO was very strong in mid to late Feb of 1957 had note notable cold but it was the coldest part of the otherwise very mild month.
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So, what did other major indices look like during these 3 most extreme EPO periods?

1. 12/1983: extreme cold
- borderline moderate La Nina, very similar to current
- MJO: inside circle phases 2, 3, 7, which are some of the coldest locations one can be in for the SE US.
- PNA: -0.5....so no help here
- AO: +0.4...so no help here
- NAO: -0.3...just a little help from here

2. 1/1963: extreme cold during some of the period
- cold neutral ENSO....so, not too far from current
- No MJO available
- PNA: +0.3..so some help from here as the most extreme cold (ATL -3) was when the PNA went over +1.0
- AO: -3.3...a whole lot of help from here
- NAO: -0.9...solid help from here

3. 2/1957: only a little colder than normal during the 2/17-23/1957 strong -EPO period
- cold neutral ENSO similar to 1/1963...so, not too far from current
- No MJO available
- PNA: -0.1..so, no help from here
- AO: -4.0...so, should have been major help from this
- NAO: 0..so, no help from here

Summary/My take:
- The 12/1983 severe cold was driven by a combo of the most extreme -EPO on record and very favorable MJO.
- The 1/1963 severe cold was driven by a combo of the 2nd most extreme -EPO on record, longest strongly -EPO on record, very strong -AO, solid -NAO, and strong +PNA during part of the period
- The 2/1957 lack of strong cold, despite the 3rd strongest -EPO on record, doesn't make senes since the AO was -4! But we don't know what the MJO was. Maybe it was strong 4 or 5?
- With the EPS forecasting the MJO heading toward a very favorable path late month, the forecasted extreme -EPO for late month, with no glaring opposition from PNA/AO/NAO (all of which are forecasted to be fairly close to neutral) or a late Dec borderline weak/moderate La Nina (look how cold 12/1983 was with similar ENSO and look how cold 1/1963 was with ENSO not that different), we still need to watch for the possibility of extreme cold making it down to the SE US toward Christmas keeping in mind that the two strongest -EPO periods on record did just that. If we can somehow manage to have either only a weak SW cutoff or better yet no SW cutoff and therefore hopefully have no pesky SER, the door could be open to some extreme cold late Dec to early Jan especially since the end of the -EPO is still not known.

* Edited for AO error Feb 1957
 
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Arctic air is a little faster on the 18z compared tot the 12z. Cold air already into mid Texas by hour 162. Let's see what happens
 
That SW cutoff is killing the chance for strong SE cold again. Maybe it will go away on later runs?!/!
 
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Most of us would rather a bowling ball and a gamble setup with what we're handling then no storm and cold. Especially considering Brent and others that are westward.;)
 
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