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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
Only hope for precip is when the initial front moves in and is pressing up against the SE ridge with a SW . Other than that is squash city . I’d be happy with cold and dry . Beats a warm christmas
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Or during a relaxation period, before the next 1060 drops in! I think a few runs of GFS, had multiple highs coming down after the initial Christmas one!?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
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I thought snowcover was the absolute best to reflect heat back out and keep warmth under it in the ground. Are you saying there is a known bias that the GFS is programmed incorrectly with that? Wow, we really need smarter people making our weather modeling.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I kind of hope it doesn't get that cold because I'm worried about my car not being able to start :(
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During the January 1985 outbreak, my father's vehicle refused to start that morning due to the weather and I'm well far south of you. To this day, that's the only occurrence of such a thing happening to anyone that I know.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
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None of what I said necessarily means this pattern will not produce a big outbreak of arctic air in the southeastern US and it shouldn't be taken out of context as such, but people need to temper their expectations a little bit on the specifics of this airmass, surely it will be quite cold, but there's a lot of uncertainty on exactly how cold and all of the aforementioned reasons wrt canonical GFS biases (among other things) should make one more cautious for at least a few more days...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I remember my parents telling me during the Jan 1985 outbreak their car wouldn't start :(
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remember it really well... minus 10 here for low nashiville got down to minus 17 for low broke records... except there were about 10 inches of snow on the ground here when that artic out break took place.... very snowy winter that year
 
Webberweather53 said:
None of what I said necessarily means this pattern will not produce a big outbreak of arctic air in the southeastern US and it shouldn't be taken out of context as such, but people need to temper their expectations a little bit on the specifics of this airmass, surely it will be quite cold, but there's a lot of uncertainty on exactly how cold and all of the aforementioned reasons wrt canonical GFS biases (among other things) should make one more cautious for at least a few more days...
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You're right, we've seen this plenty of times where the GFS shows stupid cold in L-MR but it eventually corrects itself. Not saying that it still wouldn't be bitterly cold, just not Barrow, Alaska cold :p.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is there enough snow cover to the north to allow for such an arctic airmass to get that far south ? I would think that snow cover would be an important factor.
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We'll probably have a relatively fresh snow cover down to about the I-80 corridor, that's close to climatological normals for this time of the year and is marginally conducive at best to support an airmass of the magnitude being advertised by the GFS, surely we would like to see even more to make it a lot colder as will be the case over Minnesota and Wisconsin where temps will crash into the -20s & potentially even -30s...

GFS_3_2017121818_F126_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
 
RollTide18 said:
You're right, we've seen this plenty of times where the GFS shows stupid cold in L-MR but it eventually corrects itself. Not saying that it still wouldn't be bitterly cold, just not Barrow, Alaska cold :p.
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Speaking of Barrow, AK they are forecast to be in the mid 20s over the next week or so. Pretty remarkable.
 
Glenn Burns just posted this on FB:

Looks like massive cold arctic outbreak coming next week. The high pressure is so strong I have not seen anything like it. The pressure will read 31.47" of mercury. That is monstrous! In addition, the arctic cold, according to GFS model, could drop temps into the single digits in Atlanta.
 
Eps is an impressive 7 day cold spell
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SoutheastRidge said:
I threw climo out the window after getting 8" of snow in Early December lol. I'm like you though, the older I get the more cold seems to take a toll on me. Although heat does the same. I really just want comfortable temps year round with a dose of snow thrown in occasionally :)
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Yeah, yeah, rub it in, lol. So this climo thing can go two ways.....either that's our one and only aberration, or we'll get a string of aberrations. Well, it could go cold against climo, or warm against cilmo...so I guess it can go two ways, but with two forks, lol. So when we get to the cross roads, we'll take it, lol. Meanwhile, this Xmas storm goofy keeps selling.....I don't want to have anything to do with the early sweet spot!!!!T
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I hope you're able to score a good sleet storm this winter, Tony.
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Bless you, lol. I've been hoping since 05 for some I could sled on, so hope isn't enough, I need timing. I'm pretty sure it won't sleet if the precip goes up over the ridge, and I'm pretty sure it won't sleet if it's below 0, so I'm looking for just right, lol. Thanks for the good wishes. I sure liked that cad event that showed up recently. That would work, if it's strong enough to keep it frozen in the column.
 
dsaur said:
Bless you, lol. I've been hoping since 05 for some I could sled on, so hope isn't enough, I need timing. I'm pretty sure it won't sleet if the precip goes up over the ridge, and I'm pretty sure it won't sleet if it's below 0, so I'm looking for just right, lol. Thanks for the good wishes. I sure liked that cad event that showed up recently. That would work, if it's strong enough to keep it frozen in the column.
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Did you get a lot of sleet in the January 2005 storm ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Did you get a lot of sleet in the January 2005 storm ?
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No, it was light zr all night, then came a quick hit of sleet, to save it. Maybe a quarter inch of zr and an eighth of sleet, but it made for some good sledding as it didn't melt. It wasn't enough zr to do damage, but it iced everything up, then some non skid came down on top so you would walk on it. Zr is only good in tandem with sleet, or snow. Get a good zr coat over enough snow, and it can be good, but 3 or more inches of sleet is the best, hands down. You can't kill it like snow. T
 
FWIW, JB says the GFS has been the most steady model the last few days, and he expects the Euro to come towards a GFS like solution! ;)
 
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