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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Almost
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Just freakin brutal cold and yes shades of 1983... Was alive and yes we about froze...

Only time I ever seen lake Logan Martin frozen with the exception of the main channel. The white caps frozen in mid air was a sight to see for sure
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I realize that this is likely overdone but...it's not just the GFS that is throwing around wacky high pressures like this. I guess we need to throw out every model that is showing it.
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I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa...
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Webb,
It's less than a week until Santa; please let us at least dream tonight ... :cool:
Best!
Phil
 
Storm5 said:
Save this run. We won’t see another like it anytime soon
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Until 0z! :)
I think Webber used every winter cliche/excuse, in one post down! Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
Click to expand...

...there was a run that was even more outrageous than this recently by the GFS cold air wise, and it was not the Happy Hour run either, it was one of the runs with fresh data...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
Click to expand...
1899 had a 1062 drop into Montana! It happens, Phil may have been there! ;)
 
This has the potential to be one of the crazier winter months in our lifetimes when you consider the foot of snow that fell earlier this month.
 
Is there enough snow cover to the north to allow for such an arctic airmass to get that far south ? I would think that snow cover would be an important factor.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
...there was a run that was even more outrageous than this recently by the GFS cold air wise, and it was not the Happy Hour run either, it was one of the runs with fresh data...
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Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
 
The law of averages says that the region is long overdue for an event even stronger than the one in January 2014. Based off the maps at 6z, this almost has the appearance of one of those classic 80's cold outbreaks.
 
Storm5 said:
Only hope for precip is when the initial front moves in and is pressing up against the SE ridge with a SW . Other than that is squash city . I’d be happy with cold and dry . Beats a warm christmas
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not really... if its not going snow... cold dry to most is boring... rather be shirtless and flip flops on christmas
 
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