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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

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This is just mesmerizing
 
This HP made a run at 1070, what the Canadian had a couple days ago. I think it capped around 1066-1067 this run.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
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After what was showing a few days ago, I'll take an avg to a few degrees below normal, and call it a win! General consensus is the brutal cold gets to the EC a day or two after Christmas
 
GFS done this before with super suppression on systems moving out of Gulf but seen that not exactly play out
 
malak05 said:
GFS done this before with super suppression on systems moving out of Gulf but seen that not exactly play out
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A 1060-1070MB high would not let a system trend towards us. Likely, over done.. but I have to pay attention now because of the Canadian showing something along the lines before.
 
I think even the Euro has had crazy highs. It looks like we're about to have a cold snap event similar to January 2014.
 
Just another friendly reminder of the GFS's cold bias near day 7... Don't let your own personal cold/snowy biases get in the way of objectivity, take it w/ a mine of salt. Odds are this 18z run is probably overdone
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Only hope for precip is when the initial front moves in and is pressing up against the SE ridge with a SW . Other than that is squash city . I’d be happy with cold and dry . Beats a warm christmas
 
I realize that this is likely overdone but...it's not just the GFS that is throwing around wacky high pressures like this. I guess we need to throw out every model that is showing it.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just another friendly reminder of the GFS's cold bias near day 7... Don't let your own personal cold/snowy biases get in the way of objectivity, take it w/ a mine of salt. Odds are this 18z run is probably overdone
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It's still very cold with the bias. Still well below freezing... if I am reading the chart right.
 
Just freakin brutal cold and yes shades of 1983... Was alive and yes we about froze...

Only time I ever seen lake Logan Martin frozen with the exception of the main channel. The white caps frozen in mid air was a sight to see for sure
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I realize that this is likely overdone but...it's not just the GFS that is throwing around wacky high pressures like this. I guess we need to throw out every model that is showing it.
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I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
 
The dew point map is fun. I hope you guys have lots and lots of Static Guard.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa...
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Webb,
It's less than a week until Santa; please let us at least dream tonight ... :cool:
Best!
Phil
 
Storm5 said:
Save this run. We won’t see another like it anytime soon
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Until 0z! :)
I think Webber used every winter cliche/excuse, in one post down! Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
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...there was a run that was even more outrageous than this recently by the GFS cold air wise, and it was not the Happy Hour run either, it was one of the runs with fresh data...
 
Webberweather53 said:
I realize that the pattern is favorable for a monstrous shot of arctic air but a) this is one run of the GFS b) it's the 18z suite, which doesnt include upper air data c) it has a cold bias in the medium range d) other models (like the ECMWF) are not as enthused e) it's a climatologically unusual shot of arctic air verbatim, it's hard to get that kind of airmass even back in the 20th and 19th centuries when the climate was cooler, there's a good reason the contiguous US MSLP record high is only 1064 hPa... Anything showing a high over 1060 mb is probably outlandish for now
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1899 had a 1062 drop into Montana! It happens, Phil may have been there! ;)
 
lol, and it only gets colder:

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This has the potential to be one of the crazier winter months in our lifetimes when you consider the foot of snow that fell earlier this month.
 
Is there enough snow cover to the north to allow for such an arctic airmass to get that far south ? I would think that snow cover would be an important factor.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
...there was a run that was even more outrageous than this recently by the GFS cold air wise, and it was not the Happy Hour run either, it was one of the runs with fresh data...
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Ok, but that still doesnt take away from the fact that its solution is a cold outlier for now. Also keep in mind, this model has a radiative bias over snow cover, while there isn't anything too appreciable in the southern tier at the time this shot of arctic air arrives here, there is over the northern US and south-central Canada where this airmass is originating from, those errors upstream are also likely being manifest here in our neck of the woods in the medium range wrt the intensity of this cold shot.
 
The law of averages says that the region is long overdue for an event even stronger than the one in January 2014. Based off the maps at 6z, this almost has the appearance of one of those classic 80's cold outbreaks.
 
Storm5 said:
Only hope for precip is when the initial front moves in and is pressing up against the SE ridge with a SW . Other than that is squash city . I’d be happy with cold and dry . Beats a warm christmas
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not really... if its not going snow... cold dry to most is boring... rather be shirtless and flip flops on christmas
 
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