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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

NWMSGuy said:
6Z = SER
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This run may be right and a trend, but ive seen this show to many times before, where eventually everything bleeds east in time. And the southeast would see and winterstorm of some such. Who knows.
 
accu35 said:
This run may be right and a trend, but ive seen this show to many times before, where eventually everything bleeds east in time. And the southeast would see and winterstorm of some such. Who knows.
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Yes, there is certainly a good many days to go before we get to the final solution. Anything is still on the table at this point.
 
Sadly, I've seen a lot more Arctic blasts trend west in the past, than I have trend east! It just seems easier to get true Arctic air to get into the Rockies and Plains. IMO there will be a middle ground between the 18z GFS and 12z GFS. I don't think we will get 30" totals, but don't think the SE ridge will be that strong!
 
The good news is the GEFS and the EPS still tank the EPO
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1300m said:
Unfortunately the GFS/CMC suite didn't hold onto the trend of diminishing the SE ridge. While those trends were encouraging, they actually don't line up with the MJO phase 7, > 1 amplitude analogs. Now it appears the GEFS (left), GEPS (right), and EPS (not pictured) all support a period of SE ridging intensifying, which fits in well with the MJO analogs for a strong phase 7.

MJOupdate.png


So for now, it appears the guidance may be catching on to the right ideas. As of now, I would favor the big Arctic front not making it into the southeastern U.S., with the likely battle ground being somewhere near the TX/AR/western TN zone with a big ice storm just on the other side of wherever it sets up.

Moving forward, hopefully the MJO is going to continue to progress to the more favorable Phase 8 and 1 regions. For whatever reason, it appears the oft-superior European MJO forecast hasn't been released the past couple of days, but through 12/12, there was strong agreement in the MJO continuing to progress into favorable Phase 8.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif


The latest GEFS also gets it there, but not until 12/27. Accounting for a typical response lag time of 7 days, we wouldn't expect to see the pattern begin to really respond until after New Years.

NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif


So it does appear that the pattern may not be favorable for wintry weather for much of the remainder of the month, but there is still potential for a pattern reversal by the end of the first week of January, *IF* the MJO forecasts are correct.

Bottom line, I wouldn't get too hung up on those ice storm runs of the GFS, because it's possible those are gone for good, of course knowing the long range GFS the 12z will come back only to lose it, come back, lose it, come back and then finally lose it for good once we get inside of the model truncation window.
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Great post. You said a few days ago that you thought JB and others were a week too early with the cold east idea . As of now it looks like you are spot on
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Going to be nice to have a warm up around Christmas. Makes traveling much more enjoyable. If there's no chance for snow, then pump that ridge as much as you can. Shorts weather is fine with me for a while.
 
Not sure if I would label this a true MJO event, just appears to be an enhancement of the background ENSO base state as quasi-stationary anomalous -200VP is superimposed onto the ascending branch of the Walker Cell w/ the occasional Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (dashed/solid contours) providing an interlude to renewed and modest eastward propagation towards the central Pacific. Convection is the primary determinant of MJO phase speed in the tropics and models (esp the GFS) often push the MJO too quickly into the western hemisphere (phase 8-1) or into any MJO phases in general because they can't adequately resolve the convection, the MJO's top heavy structure, and trailing stratiform, which leads them to depict this phenomena as a faster moving, moist CCKW... Convection is usually located in the wake of most convectively coupled equatorial waves thus it slows them down, the heightened background convection over the Maritime Continent hastened by our ongoing cold neutral-NINA event is likely to blame for the quasi-stationary forcing that's stalled out between 120E and 150E.
vp200.GFS.anom.KELVIN.5S-5N.png
 
Ok, so no ice storm for Christmas good i can move on, JK kinda.
 
To be real about things, most of us have already scored last week. I heard over and over if we can get 1 snow then will call it the winter, LOL!! We all know we want more, its the love and passion inside that craves for more. This is a very addictive and you have to really love weather to follow every modle run. So im bless to have an early snow and for that im fine, but a big part of me still wants one more.
 
1300m said:
You make several good points. I noticed the bias-corrected GEFS MJO forecast actually does stall out in Phase 7, supporting what you're saying here. It does appear whatever is driving this activity is beginning to have an impact on the pattern, and if it is simply an enhancement of the background state and doesn't progress, well then, that is not going to be fun.

NCPE_BC_phase_21m_small.gif
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Thanks. Yeah if the base state was different (esp if we were in a NINO) or if we were later in the winter or boreal spring when MJO becomes increasingly axisymmetric wrt the equator and & ENSO coupling to the seasonal cycle is relatively weak, then we would certainly have no problem getting easterly propagation. This certainly just looks like a case where a CCKW initially over the Indian Ocean pushed into the Maritime-Continent & Western Pacific and received a huge boost from the background ENSO state, and its dynamical structure and amplitude was likely enhanced such that it slowed down enough to where it began to bleed in to the MJO's spectra and thus projected onto the MJO's EOFs, but this reality isn't an MJO pulse. Even the CFSv2, which has a huge bias towards central Pacific convection (even more so than the GFS), stalls the convective center out over the Maritime Continent through the end of the month...

chi200.cfs.eqtr.png
 
accu35 said:
To be real about things, most of us have already scored last week. I heard over and over if we can get 1 snow then will call it the winter, LOL!! We all know we want more, its the love and passion inside that craves for more. This is a very addictive and you have to really love weather to follow every modle run. So im bless to have an early snow and for that im fine, but a big part of me still wants one more.
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Well for us here in the Midlands of South Carolina we didn’t see anything but a damn cold miserable rain‼️‼️
 
Good thing I'm not in the south until New Years. Hopefully we can keep the warmth to the south of here. I don't want an ice storm though. Hopefully I don't end up in the battle zone.
 
Looks like Shane was right and that was our only storm of the winter thanks to the NINO/SER.


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That does look torchy. Hope it's wrong, but I'm not so sure. Definitely looks very possible. Ugh maybe we start thinking about severe weather?
 
Until we get to closer or within truncation there is no way to know the ridge will even be close to what is shown on the models. I'm also glad there is no more major ice threat since it's a bad time for that. I still think there will be more winter mischief to be seen considering how extreme our weather has been lately.
 
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