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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Not quite GLC, but it was well inland and now the GFS is getting funky. So this was one storm for a while, but suddenly, there's more hanging back in Texas?

GFS looney land, you funny.
 
looool the SE ridge is so strong it's blocking whatever this is from Texas from even going NE for now. Goodness lawd.
 
Literally days of ice and snow in Texas this run. Wherever the front does hang up, the NW side of it will get crushed with a prolonged winter storm
 
Latest 00z GFS not too far off from the 12z EPS idea:

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png
 
Gfs definitely ticking back towards the 12z Euro at H5... see if tonight's Euro does something wonky in the mid-long range.
 
It literally won't get beaten down in fantasy land in what I'm seeing. Even the strong storm that cuts doesn't fully beat it down. Does a little bit but not fully.
 
Unfortunately, that's what the GFS has been showing outside of a run here and there. We know about the big storm but we don't know if we're even going to have the cold. However, I don't think either of these last two GFS runs are going to be even close to the ending solution.
 
Everything is contingent on how far down the arctic air makes it. Wherever that Arctic boundary stalls is where you will see a white/icy Christmas. Need that pesky SER to gtfoh so that Arctic air can push further SE.
 
So, what's the rule again on being able to use the "We Toss" option on the 0Z GFS when one declines to use it on the 18Z? I don't want to break any rules and have it tossed when that isn't allowed.
 
A
GaWx said:
So, what's the rule again on being able to use the "We Toss" option on the 0Z GFS when one declines to use it on the 18Z? I don't want to break any rules and have it tossed when that isn't allowed.
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Any 0z EURO news?
 
This is a war that the Euro will likely win. Ridge in the East, again.
 
We're in lockstep now, the 00z GFS &Euro, 12z EPS, 00z GEFS at 240, all showing ridge in east more or less, trough into SW US now.. hiccup, or pattern change to warm? Hmm.
 
yeah the southeast ridge is definitely a bigger issue on tonight's runs no doubt

Shifts the battle zone back over here, but I still think there's too much uncertainty to be sure about much.
 
One bright spot, there is a lot of cold air on our side of the N. Hemisphere and it's on the move south somewhere.. And the 00z Gfs moves the trough of bitter air slowly east after 240 into lala land.
 
whamby said:
One bright spot, there is a lot of cold air on our side of the N. Hemisphere and it's on the move south somewhere.. And the 00z Gfs moves the trough of bitter air slowly east after 240 into lala land.
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Can't complain about an arctic block like this:
gfs_T850a_namer_53.png
 
whamby said:
I'll tell you this much, I sure don't buy this:
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lol as much as I'd like to buy that, I agree, it doesn't look right :p

the low cuts up to Chicago

and then its 66 in NYC and 20 in Dallas :eek:

also looking at that some places from Oklahoma to Ohio get two ice storms 3 days apart lol
 
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So far 06z similar to the 00z run. ridging in the SE, some changes, but overall nothing like the 18z ice threat in the deep south (ga,carolinas) from yesterday. Someone is gonna get it though!
 
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Shawn said:
So far 06z similar to the 00z run. ridging in the SE, some changes, but overall nothing like the 18z ice threat in the deep south (ga,carolinas) from yesterday. Someone is gonna get it though!
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IMO we will get something... may be severe, or heavy rain, or Ice.. I think pure snow is off the table for me (ATL) with they overall trends
 
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