• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Shawn said:
See Below:



And uhm, the only thing we can take from this, is that there is a large signal for a Wintry event around Christmas in the Southern areas. Don't get too excited yet! It will change.
Click to expand...
It's ok to be in the bullseye 10 days out, yes!?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It's very rare to have surface temps in the single digits and teens and not have snow right ?
Click to expand...
Nope, happens all the time! It's all about upper levels! And before you ask, I know it's coming, it can't be too cold to snow or sleet
 
That is the highest fantasy map I have EVER seen over my back yard, ever!!! Screensaver worthy , I don't care if it turns out to be 65 and sunny!
 
Just remember how right models can be a couple of weeks out - speaking of yesterday's forecast, in particular ...

Screen_Shot_2017-12-13_at_7.30.18_PM.png
 
The 0Z/12Z GEFS means are predicting ~-400 EPO peak centered near 12/24. Just how rare are days with a sub -400 EPO? During DJF, there have been only 9 strongly -EPO periods that included at least one day of sub -400 since 1948, or only one period every 8 winters on average. So, this is a pretty special event being forecasted. The last one was in Dec of 2009. One has to go all the way back to Feb of 1993 for the last one prior to 2009! The only time it happened in late Dec, was in 1983, when it plunged to a record 0 at KATL on 12/25, just one day after a record negative EPO of -504! On 12/24/1983, KATL also was very cold.
 
The difference here is that might have just been one kicks and giggles run, this has been a storm signal that's been showing up for a while...now...whether we see that storm affect the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, or wherever else....we'll find out in the future.

However I do remember "Voldemort" from the old days at the other other board, where a big storm that seemed consistent ended up disappearing and it was much later in the game than this.
 
Torchtember said:
I'm 90% sure the other website crashed because of the 18z GFS run. Trust me. They flipped when those maps came out
Click to expand...
I would agree! Most have never seen a run like that since the age of computer models!
 
Shawn said:
I highly doubt the other board broke because of an 18z GFS run way out in lala land. It's likely something else going on.
Click to expand...

Probably but no everyday you see a model run with 25 inches of snow in the south (it's ice i know), but quite a few big runs within the past couple of weeks.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I believe I remember seeing runs that were just as bad before 2/12/14's massive ice storm.
Click to expand...
Yes!! That Euro snow map had me getting 22" of snow! Got about 2" of sleet and no snow!! That was because the Euro model showed all qpf as snow and it's supposedly been fixed!? Now the GFS seems broken!
 
Here's the statewide snow and sleet accumulation maps for the winter storm this past weekend in NC and the band of precipitation yesterday evening, had to make a few adjustments to the latter as I was able to find a few other reports from PTI airport and Wilkesboro...
December 8-9 2017 NC Snowmap.png
December 12 2017 NC Snow map.png
 
packfan98 said:
And zoomed in!
snod.us_ma.png
Click to expand...
f3b3847c5ab9d9ffdb4201cb8c619ead.jpg

Torchtember said:
I'm 90% sure the other website crashed because of the 18z GFS run. Trust me. They flipped when those maps came out
Click to expand...
I doubt it since they only have about 20 people in the SE forum now.
MichaelJ said:
Don't worry about American, packbacker will be along soon to tout a Lithuanian model he found which says Raleigh will be 75 on Christmas Day and all will be fine in their world then.
Click to expand...
599.gif

Storm5 said:
This 18z GEFS mean is just stupid. I've never seen anything like this lol
4b6833dae0fabfbbcdb2a5aaa278c49a.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

steve-carell-pants-party-anchorman.gif
 
If only that were 24 hours out instead of 300.... Guaranteed that will have a different look in a little while when the 0z run comes out. However, I did save that total snowfall image for good measure. Let's just see how the cold progresses first. Looks like there's going to be a lot of sleepy posters next week if the models keep spitting out runs like that.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
If only that were 24 hours out instead of 300.... Guaranteed that will have a different look in a little while when the 0z run comes out. However, I did save that total snowfall image for good measure. Let's just see how the cold progresses first. Looks like there's going to be a lot of sleepy posters next week if the models keep spitting out runs like that.
Click to expand...
I can sleep in June
 
I know that some are viewing the solutions today as being ludicrous, but it's absolutely possible to get an ice storm from a CAD that extends across much of the state of Georgia. It happened back in February 2004!
 
CentralGAColdFront said:
I know that some are viewing the solutions today as being ludicrous, but it's absolutely possible to get an ice storm from a CAD that extends across much of the state of Georgia. It happened back in February 2004!
Click to expand...
I don't remember an ice storm in February 2004. I do remember one in January 2005 that had strong CAD that went all the way to AL.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top