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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Arcc said:
Not a chance with a deep trough like that. It will shear that puny s/w out every time.

The only chance I see for winter precip is a few token flurries or sleet pellets on the Northern side of that stalled boundry unless you are in NC where I could see the SW flow allowing some overrunning. Otherwise it is 200+ hours at the minimum for rest of us outside possibly the mountains.
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If any LP that develops, it will probably get kicked out soon as the polar low displacement relaxes. So, there could be a system days between 7-10. This is based from the GFS OP of course. Still need to watch the baroclinc zone.

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Starting to see some serious potential next weekend..... love this look this far out.

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most recent Euro weeklies from November 30th looked amazing right into mid January, but you could definitely begin to see the classic late winter pullback as February approached...
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Given our chances, it sounds like after then winter is basically over. Good news is that the next month and a half looks like a great opportunity for a storm based on what you are saying. As far as the recent trends, looks like backside overrunning is not happening as all cold chasing moisture ends, but maybe we could get something in the small system that follows soon after. If not, then its time to start watching the 240 range again.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most recent Euro weeklies from November 30th looked amazing right into mid January, but you could definitely begin to see the classic late winter pullback as February approached...
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Who cares about February, look at what's happening the next 4-6 weeks!!
 
As long as we have the whole month of January, I'm good. Even if the next winter or two after this one ends up warm, it won't matter for me if we get a nice board wide storm (at least almost).
 
Lol I've been lazy and have really just briefly browsed anything that isn't based on temps and the pattern for now on the models. When there's a threat we're trying to haul in, I'll start looking at more.
 
CMC suppresses next weekends potential system, GFS is close.... see what the Euro shows, this may be nothing but certainly a time frame I like as the best potential over next 10 days.

Now I'm off with the Fam to Raleigh for Christmas shopping (Lord help me) and the Tree lighting tonight, if I don't make it back.... it's been a great ride ;)
 
For all of the guests that are viewing this page right now, please take a minute or two of your time to make an account. With the upcoming pattern, this forum is going to become very active and if there is a storm then guest viewing might be disabled. Sorry if this is too banterish btw
 
One would think that the hard push of cold / Northern Stream (NS) would crush most anything looking at the charts above. Maybe even further to the South than the GFS is modeling as the GFS is precipitation happy a lot of times. I would be looking for smaller short waves to give smaller (albeit good) events, that are able to creep in from the South.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given our chances, it sounds like after then winter is basically over. Good news is that the next month and a half looks like a great opportunity for a storm based on what you are saying. As far as the recent trends, looks like backside overrunning is not happening as all cold chasing moisture ends, but maybe we could get something in the small system that follows soon after. If not, then its time to start watching the 240 range again.
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Yeah this is why I mentioned the December 13-21 period on my twitter account as the period we could score if at all several days ago
 
Stormlover said:
Agree, that's way too far to worry about, plus plenty of time for them to change.
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Theres time for it to change but it's very hard to go against bgd climatology of NINA winters which are often blowtorch warm in February... I'd be shocked if we ended up anywhere close to normal
 
Tarheel1 said:
Who cares about February, look at what's happening the next 4-6 weeks!!
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For the number of opportunities, February-early March tends to make the most of them most frequently and often produces the largest winter storms in NC... La Niñas usually just make this period an extension of spring which is favored this year...
 
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