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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

It's looney land but tbh it's not too far out in it and it's been showing a big storm since it has come into the picture. So we'll likely have a major storm on Christmas, just a matter of what and where.
 
Well happy hour GFS has spoken let's hope the next euro model run will have a wintry signal event in the Christmas time frame:cool:
 
This much ice would end life as we know it. What a terrible Christmas that would be.

With that said, BRING IT ON!

Weenies must have crashed AmericanWX when that map came out. That's hilarious
 
that ranks up there as one of the craziest fantasy snow maps I have ever seen. Someone shoud make a thread to share the craziest snow maps that models have spit out. I remember some crazy ones last year for the January storm debacle.
 
18z GEFS is all about the Christmas time frame. It will be interesting to see how this holds up over the coming week or so.


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One must ask just how crazy would it be for a storm of this magnitude follow what we just got. As crazy as a weather year it’s been, it wouldn’t shock me to see a major storm close it out for someone in the area. Y’all been saying all along it’s ripe pattern...lol. Hello ripeness. I mean, I’ve had snow on the ground for 6 days now and still have some left. Crazy.


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This is from WxSouth:
As I mentioned a couple days ago, the pattern for Christmas (near then) and beyond is going to turn downright Wintery again in the Southland. This is turning out to be quite a December. Already, the signs are there on my synoptic charts, for a series of events in the Southeast, complete with overrunning Ice , possibly full-fledged Ice Storms, and snow north and west of the ice. Of course, that's too far out to be specific, but the nature of the upcoming Alaskan block, yet again, looks poised to deliver. There will be a series of strong surface Arctic Highs developing and ooozing southbound, meanwhile, copious moisture runs up over it, in southwest flow aloft--been a few years since we've seen this happen, and this will make the 2nd time, and in the month of December. Nowhere near as dry in the Southeast this Winter as most models and forecast offices went either--several good southern soaking events are coming to round out the month, some of which will be laden with Ice and snow--even into deep Texas and possibly the really Deep South region. I have the details at my blog in the Synoptic Outlook Category.
Here's the upper level ridge /block development shown strongly in the next couple of weeks near Alaska/West Coast---this represents trouble for the Deep South at some point.
 
and to give the 18Z, 12 days out, its due ...

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it's actually showing no freeze and that is insane given the run ...
 
What a crazy run, here's a few tidbits:

- Snow & Ice breaks out across the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley next Friday
- Light band of snow and sleet across SE Texas, S Louisiana, and S Mississippi next Friday into Saturday
- Moisture starts creeping back next Sunday morning, sleet along the Gulf Coast
- Full blown Ice Storm across ALL of the South except for Florida on Christmas Day
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
EPO tanks but PNA looks to go down into "-" territory for a while; any ideas on what that might lead to?
Thanks!
Phil
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Every situation is different but it would help immensely, especially for FL and S GA to not have a -PNA/SE ridge, so that the cold being generated by the extreme Alaskan ridge/-EPO pattern would have a better chance to be driven deeply SE.
 
The 850mb temperatures are horrific with a surface level in the single digit and teens per GFS. Hopefully, for Christmas sake, this will not happen.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
It's very rare to have surface temps in the single digits and teens and not have snow right ?
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Briefly looking at the track of the system, warm air gets involved in the mid levels. While 850mb is freezing at the potential onset, the low approaches and absolutely wreaks havoc on the 850 temperatures.

We want the track to stay in the Gulf and off the FL coast to have a predominantly snow situation.
 
I’ve seen temperatures in the teens as soon as precipitation started it was rain not a sleet pellet one or snowflake ended up being big Ice storm obviously!!


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That was a crazy 18z GFS run for sure, but not buying that quite yet. A winter storm signal is there, even if the SE US does get a winter storm, it may not turn out as a major winter storm like today's 18z GFS run is suggesting. If the GFS and other models show this icy look by mid week next week, I'd be getting concerned. I talked about this guys in my video I recorded the other day. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4qjZu5IUHk
 
Shawn said:
The 850mb temperatures are horrific with a surface level in the single digit and teens per GFS. Hopefully, for Christmas sake, this will not happen.
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It would be a total disaster, tree and power wise, with the precip rates and amount. If my limited knowledge is close, could be looking and near 3" ICE accumulation...
 
gawxnative said:
It would be a total disaster, tree and power wise, with the precip rates and amount. If my limited knowledge is close, could be looking and near 3" ICE accumulation...
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I imagine the big snow we just went through probably wouldnt help matters since it probably put a lot of stress on the trees.
 
Looking over the GEFS, there aren't too terribly many with a big ice storm around that time frame in the deep South. The mean is skewed by a couple bigger members. Whew!
 
This might be the worst ice run/idea that I've seen since the now infamous 2/12/14 storm. Absolutely incredible even if it's a happy hour run that doesn't verify.
 
GaWx said:
Not to be a grinch, but 12/25 at ATL is tied for the date with the most major icestorms in their history going back to 1879: 3! 12/25 is tied with 1/23 and 1/30. The 3 12/25 icestorms were all cold neutral ENSO, i.e. not too far from the current weak La Nina.
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Wow that's pretty amazing given it's around Christmas
 
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