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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Liking those goings on in the Gulf next Sat/Sun! Could get interesting, really quickly. On GFS seems it's been a little more robust each run
 
Snowflowxxl said:
That storm at 138 just keeps getting a little closer hmmmm
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There's no storm established, it's moisture riding the frontal boundary. Could still have a late bloomer developing off the SE coast.

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Again, watching that positive tilt trough over Mexico that could develop into a LP system over the GOM.
81f7b051d294a1dadf12350230e9876c.jpg


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WeatherWatch said:
There's no storm established, it's moisture riding the frontal boundary. Could still have a late bloomer developing off the SE coast.

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It will be interesting to watch. Get an impulse coming up, and it's something for a lot of us. If it's just some over running north central, it's still some sleet showers possible. And it's only 6 or 7 days out :) Of course, climo says no for around here, except maybe some scattered pellets, but Larry's purpose for this thread, is to give analogs some love, so it's possible, lol. I have suffered thru many winters where the scattered sleet in Nov. or Dec. was all I saw the whole season, so you just have to take what's offered :) And it's only 100 years since the last Dec major offering from old man winter :) T
 
Don may end up looking good in the future as it seems like what he's looking at is creeping closer. Wonder if it could phase with the clipper and come up with something, even if its small...at least for North Alabama/Georgia/Upstate SC and north from there.
 
Using the TT maps, temps around the Atlanta area.
06z GFS on 00z Sun - 50°F
12z GFS on 00z Sun - 32°F

Only a 18 degree difference, no big deal. lol
 
WeatherWatch said:
Again, watching that positive tilt trough over Mexico that could develop into a LP system over the GOM.
81f7b051d294a1dadf12350230e9876c.jpg


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Click to expand...

Not a chance with a deep trough like that. It will shear that puny s/w out every time.

The only chance I see for winter precip is a few token flurries or sleet pellets on the Northern side of that stalled boundry unless you are in NC where I could see the SW flow allowing some overrunning. Otherwise it is 200+ hours at the minimum for rest of us outside possibly the mountains.
 
Typical SEUS winter luck. Really cold air for this time of year but either A) Storms are suppressed or B) Warm air is present by the time the moisture moves into the area.

The image above shows just that.
 
Still a pretty decent 12z run, looks little colder than 6z. This run screems ICE to me. Pattern still way better than last year.
 
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