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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SoutheastRidge said:
As long as everyone else has to post their reports in the banter thread also I'm fine with that.
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It's not about what everyone else does . I don't see condition reports in this thread . Moving forward current condition reports from any location will be deleted .Post them in banter or I'll just delete them . If you wanna start a current obs thread go for it
 
Getting very old that nearly every storm showing up on the GFS medium to long range has that same look to it which is the same look to it the storm that hit a couple days ago had. Only hitting AL, N GA and parts of NC... Would be nice to get a good CAD and AL and W GA get left out. Yes, I am salty from the miss a couple days ago.
 
Man the 12z gfs and 12z Euro are worlds apart late next week

12z gfs
12z Euro

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12z gfs
12z Euro

No reason to get too excited about sweeping cold next weekend. Everything is still very much up in the air
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That is crazy. When was the last time they were that far apart?
 
I need a little ridge southeast of us here in north miss but not too much lol, to keep that precip from running off. Hey they got their snow south and east of us. I’m sure the other north miss, dallas, West Tennessee, Arkansas folks will agree. Lol
 
Storm5 said:
12z gfs
12z Euro
I'm going to err on the side of the GFS, just because it's been cold lately, and I don't think it's done....Also, going with JB's bathtub sloshing theory....Let the good times roll....FWIW


No reason to get too excited about sweeping cold next weekend. Everything is still very much up in the air
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It is ridiculous to not only see huge differences between 12Z GFS & Euro but also why such big differences between 0Z/6Z/12Z GFS runs and gigantic differences between 0Z Euro and 12Z Euro. Almost like they're not from same model.

On another note, did anyone see that the 0Z GEFS has the -EPO sinking all the way down to -390 on 12/24?! Getting an EPO that negative would be something that hasn't happened all that many times as most winters haven't had that including a number of great winters. I'm in process of researching the climo implications of this.

Edit: of course with the models jumping around so wildly, I'm not sure of how worthwhile this is. I mean is the 12Z GEFS EPO still that extremely negative for then?
 
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Remember back in the middle of November when there was a big difference in models? The EURO caved to the GFS and the GFS really brought the goods...

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To Larry's point the 00z Euro fit the changes on the 00z gfs and Gefs . But then the 12z run today went to he'll.

00z Euro
12z euro
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Storm5 said:
Here ya go Larry
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Charlie, thanks so much!! It looks like it gets down to -4, which I'm assuming corresponds to -4 sigma or -400?
Is that right? So, this says the 12Z GFS is out to lunch with it getting down only to -1 to -1.5 then? Am I reading that right?

Charlie, are you able to post the same chart for 0Z GEFS?
 
GaWx said:
Charlie, thanks so much!! It looks like it gets down to -4, which I'm assuming corresponds to -4 sigma or -400?
Is that right? So, this says the 12Z GFS is out to lunch with it getting down only to -2.5? Am I reading that right?

Charlie, are you able to post the same chart for 0Z GEFS?
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I believe that's correct Larry. Here is the 00z GEFS epo forecast . Very similar
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Storm5 said:
Yeah Ryan's new site is far from user friendly
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Weather.us 's main page was made before Ryan got involved. The stuff over on wx.graphics is his new stuff. I'm sure things will be made more user friendly, even on the main site, over time.
 
Storm5 said:
I believe that's correct Larry. Here is the 00z GEFS epo forecast . Very similar
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Thanks! So, the 12Z GEFS -EPO peak is little changed, which tells even more that the 12Z GFS is way out in left field. I mean it has an EPO only barely negative when both GEFS runs have it near -400!!

Oh, in another episode of "As The Models Turn": whereas the 0Z/12Z GEFS and GEPS have reduced the strength of the dreaded SER, the 12Z EPS has increased it! I'm calling the 12Z Euro suite BS for now.
 
12z eps very GEFS like with the SE ridge placement though the gefs isn't near as strong with it. The good news is the eps clearly says the Euro OP is out to lunch
 
Storm5 said:
12z eps very GEFS like with the SE ridge placement though the gefs isn't near as strong with it. The good news is the eps clearly says the Euro OP is out to lunch
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Indeed, the 12Z EPS is very diff from 12Z Euro. But what's with the 12Z EPS SER in the 11-15? It is much stronger than the 0Z EPS version as well as vs the 12Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS and consequently much warmer in the SE vs the 0Z EPS/12Z GEFS/12Z GEPS. I expect a better run tonight as this looks bogus.

Edit: Do the SouthernWx rules allow for a "We toss" of the 12Z EPS? Please tell me we can lol. We should get at least one mulligan/week for the 12Z EPS as it isn't infallible.
 
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GaWx said:
Indeed, the 12Z EPS is very diff from 12Z Euro. But what's with the 12Z EPS SER in the 11-15? It is much stronger than the 0Z EPS version as well as vs the 12Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS and consequently much warmer in the SE vs the 0Z EPS/12Z GEFS/12Z GEPS. I expect a better run tonight as this looks bogus.

Edit: Do the SouthernWx rules allow for a "We toss" of the 12Z EPS? Please tell me we can lol.
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We’ll make an exception for you


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GaWx said:
Indeed, the 12Z EPS is very diff from 12Z Euro. But what's with the 12Z EPS SER in the 11-15? It is much stronger than the 0Z EPS version as well as vs the 12Z GEFS and 12Z GEPS and consequently much warmer in the SE vs the 0Z EPS/12Z GEFS/12Z GEPS. I expect a better run tonight as this looks bogus.

Edit: Do the SouthernWx rules allow for a "We toss" of the 12Z EPS? Please tell me we can lol. We should get at least one mulligan/week for the 12Z EPS as it isn't infallible.
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Yeah that's the only part that worries me. The eps not only has the SE ridge it strengthens it in the 11-15 day period . Time will tell

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Storm5 said:
Yeah that's the only part that worries me. The eps not only has the SE ridge it strengthens it in the 11-15 day period . Time will tell
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I've got the perfect Rx to alleviate the worry.

1. We toss the 11-15 EPS since we've just been given permission by whatalife and it doesn't look right.
2. See what Happy Hour serves us. That is an always "we toss" run but only if needed. I love having this can't lose run! Because of that, it is becoming my favorite run!
 
Larry,
EPO tanks but PNA looks to go down into "-" territory for a while; any ideas on what that might lead to?
Thanks!
Phil
 
Phil Connors said:
Who can simplify the teleconnections? I know I cant....
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There's a little bit of stuff in our Wiki, (look in Models --> Other Stuff; look at Larry's MOJO blog in the Models section, as well), and some of the NOAA websites have great info if you Google "teleconnections explained" and variations thereof ... ;)
 
A batch of showers associated with the tail end of an Alberta Clipper intensified over central NC yesterday evening, leading to rain showers mixed w/ snowflakes, graupel, and/or sleet pellets mainly north and east of Raleigh. The 0z KGSO sounding that was conducted as this was ongoing seemed to support wintry precipitation (if any managed to fall and moisten the low-mid levels) with sub freezing wet bulb temps practically to the ground (cyan line to the left of the temperature line on the skew T (in red)) & cold mid level temperatures. Reports from northern Wayne County, metwannabe, Allan Huffman in Youngsville, and another close to Falls Lake & Wake Forest were used to give some ground truth, virtually no LSRs were available (for obvious reasons given how brief the wintry precipitation would have lasted). The batch of precipitation generally maintained its intensity over the course of the evening as it affected the northern tidewater and coastal plain regions
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GFS is plunging the arctic air straight through the SE again before Christmas

snow near Houston at 228 :weenie:

Snowing all along the Texas coast at 234 lol dejavu
 
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