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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Rain Cold said:
Is there a way on the weather.us site to see all individual ensemble members for either/both the GEFS and EPS simultaneously? If there is, I can't figure it out.
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I haven't seen individual members on there. College of Dupage site has GEFS members but no free site has EPS members..... yet

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1300m said:
On weather.us you can view them one at a time. It's pretty painful to have to go through and select each of the 51 members, but if you have the motivation, you can do it, and who are we kidding, we all are going to be doing it if our area actually has a shot at something!

To do it, go to the link below and then for members each of the 51 are available, along with a large selection of model parameters.

From this site: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro
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Yeah kind of brutal haha. Report back to me which members show something for mby...thanks

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1300m said:
On weather.us you can view them one at a time. It's pretty painful to have to go through and select each of the 51 members, but if you have the motivation, you can do it, and who are we kidding, we all are going to be doing it if our area actually has a shot at something!

To do it, go to the link below and then for members each of the 51 are available, along with a large selection of model parameters.

From this site: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro
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Thanks! I have been poking around that site for the last week or so. It's great to have some good Euro stuff to look at. Hopefully, he'll continue to add more charts and views as well as expand the usability of it.
 
Here are the eps members. The eps isn't nearly as excited as the GEFS. The eps is focused to the area NW of the southeast
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Storm5 said:
We can still score even if the front blasts through the area initially. My point was for a prolonged icy winter storm like the is showing we are gonna need a little SE ridge
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Yes perhaps a very little. I'm just not a fan of any SE ridge. To score you've got to get the battle zone to your south. I just don't recall that happening much if ever for MBY. I'd rather take my chances without one and rely on the STJ or a digging vort to get a storm. Hopefully low amplitude phase 8 squashes it into oblivion in a couple weeks.
 
pcbjr said:
Wish I had the divine power ... :cool:
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Purely mind over matter, Phil. Just think it so. I regularly affect the out come of football games, and I'd guess 80% of fans will agree their input affects the output of games, lol. Just have to believe, and point the stink finger at all forces aligned against cold and sleet :)
 
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Yeah I'm really shocked metwannabe didn't say anything last night about the snow and graupel that was in his area. Looks like some snow fell in parts of Halifax, Franklin, Nash, Wilson, & Wayne counties yesterday evening.
 
Webberweather53 said:
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Yeah I'm really shocked metwannabe didn't say anything last night about the snow and graupel that was in his area. Looks like some snow fell in parts of Halifax, Franklin, Nash, Wilson, & Wayne counties yesterday evening.
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I did, I had a few flakes but best returns were just to my south, literally like a mile or two... didn't feel like getting out and checking on it either. I failed my apologies lol

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metwannabe said:
I did, I had a few flakes but best returns were just to my south, literally like a mile or two... didn't feel like getting out and checking on it either. I failed my apologies lol

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lol it's all good I totally didn't see it coming, just a random shower associated with a clipper passing to our north that got going between RDU and the VA border and since the freezing level was low and temps were really cold aloft didn't take much to get some flakes. When I get a chance I'm gonna take a closer look at it
 
Storm5 said:
Cold chasing moisture in the 12z gfs. Energy diving down the backside of the trough by day 10 but it looks to flat at the moment
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Too far out to digest but that diving energy tried to pop a coastal for an ENC special but alas it's hr 300 lol. But plenty of potential

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My thermometer is reading 29. We are going to struggle to make it above freezing. Hoping to see a dusting of snow later today.
 
Storm5 said:
The 12 GEFS suggest we have a slight se ridge between days 8-15 which hangs the front up and it's over running city. Look at this mean !!! The good news it torch Christmas looks To be off the table
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Wow looks great in the Northeast !
 
Storm5 said:
The 12 GEFS suggest we have a slight se ridge between days 8-15 which hangs the front up and it's over running city. Look at this mean !!! The good news it torch Christmas looks To be off the table
12180862022afe80a8ea1d0d2170e5bc.jpg


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From what I remember arctic air can be mishandled on models for how much bleeds east. Would definitely be shocked if someone didn't have an icy mix from that setup.
 
GaStorm said:
From what I remember arctic air can be mishandled on models for how much bleeds east. Would definitely be shocked if someone didn't have an icy mix from that setup.
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yeah models are notorious for being too slow/underestimating arctic air

I still remember last week when the GFS said Dallas wouldnt get below 40 and the Euro wasn't much better

It hit 22 :p
 
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