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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

its gonna be a long 2 weeks lol.

I've been amazed at the consistent signal on the GFS of something big since it was 384 hours
 
Brent said:
its gonna be a long 2 weeks lol

I've been amazed at the consistent signal on the GFS of something big since it was 384 hours
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I know, and I caught myself getting excited again, and I know better. Almost miss the days before I knew how to read the GFS. Lol
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I know, and I caught myself getting excited again, and I know better. Almost miss the days before I knew how to read the GFS. Lol
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I've been trying to maintain expectations here(been burned by fantasy land before), but the signals are so strong...

the great 1983 outbreak when Dallas stayed below freezing a record 11 days is #3 on the CPC analogs :confused:
 
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Euro doesn't look too bad to me at 240...
ecmwf_T850_us_11.png
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
That will most likely affect us here in South Carolina with a overrunning event here for us with that look right??
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Not by any means, still favors a lag time before getting into the flow (again) and something to our West. It might just sit and spin a while, maybe get involved for something further on. Too far out.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
That will most likely affect us here in South Carolina with a overrunning event here for us with that look right??
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To get a good snow storm here in SC, (especially the midlands), you want to see a low tracking across the central Gulf and NorthCentral Florida and slightly rounding up the coast. Other than that, ice or sleet is always a problem as we get into the heart of Winter.

There are exceptions, of course, for track and the high/cold around. We usually get screwed with sleet and ice with these over running deals b/c of the warm air getting into the mid levels. On the flip side, we have in the past, done okay.
 
packfan98 said:
Major winter weather mischief on the 6z gfs on Christmas Eve and Day! Many folks could be celebrating like they did in the old days...without electricity!
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Yeah, and gfs is faster with this system seems like. Last night it came around 280-300 hr, this morning 240. So thats not that far off really. Should be checking clown maps soon
 
packfan98 said:
Major winter weather mischief on the 6z gfs on Christmas Eve and Day! Many folks could be celebrating like they did in the old days...without electricity!
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Yeah, and Christmas is only 12 days away, so not way way out in voodoo land! As changes to this colder pattern, should be well in progress in around 10 days! Great runs overnight!
 
Some thoughts, the range we've been keeping a look out isn't that far out, but still a long ways to go with modeling of course. If there will be an ice storm, it could turn out worse or better, better meaning no ice. I mean, I don't mind the IP, but ZR? No way!

The GFS has been showing a signal for some type of winter storm late this month but who knows, it may turn out to be another significant snow storm. That's only if the SER gets broken down. Then again, the storm may turn out to be ZR/IP switching over to all snow for some because the SER may brake down as a storm system passes through.
 
JB says coldest Christmas as a country , since 2000! Snow from just NW of New Orleans and from Carolinas northward! Good times ahead. This was on his FB from today
 
And the model runs overnight show why there is no reason to panic over model runs for anything further than 7 days out. They can change drastically from one day to the next. And the back and forth could be a good thing. I think that means there's lots of energy flying around and makes it harder for the models to be consistent. That's when we could end up having a good storm and the models won't really get it consistently until 72 hours out.
 
I for sure would not get your hopes up for a wintry system around Christmas. Sure we all would love nothing more than to be tracking a system by late next week but there are many things to consider . There is a real chance the SE ridge gets muted as we roll forwArd which means the chance of the arctic front blasting through the region goes way up. In order to get a gfs op like solution you need somewhat of a SE ridge to slow the front up over the region . That would promote a SW flow allowing for an over running event . However then you'rerunning the risk of the front getting hung up to far to the NW. Lots of variables at play , but I would temper any excitement until middle of next week. Also, don't be surprised when the gfs starts spitting out completely different solutions . We are over ten days out , we all know good and well whatever the gfs shows now is not the end result
 
Rain Cold said:
By the way, let's not forget that even though the models are depicting of a prominent SE ridge occurring in the LR, that is by no means set in stone at this point. My guess is that we do get to it, but it's entirely possible that it's not as robust as it looks today, and it's also possible that it's entirely transitory.
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;)
 
I agree with Charlie, its all about the SER. To much of a cold blast will hinder our chances at a winterstorm, but little ridge will help us. I know we dont lime the word "SER" but it can work in our favor as well if the cards are played right. Me personally, GFS has been strong on this storm for days now. Give it a few more days or so, and if its still showing then we can start our thread for it. Lets bring this Christmas storm
 
accu35 said:
I agree with Charlie, its all about the SER. To much of a cold blast will hinder our chances at a winterstorm, but little ridge will help us. I know we dont lime the word "SER" but it can work in our favor as well if the cards are played right. Me personally, GFS has been strong on this storm for days now. Give it a few more days or so, and if its still showing then we can start our thread for it. Lets bring this Christmas storm
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We can still score even if the front blasts through the area initially. My point was for a prolonged icy winter storm like the is showing we are gonna need a little SE ridge
 
Is there a way on the weather.us site to see all individual ensemble members for either/both the GEFS and EPS simultaneously? If there is, I can't figure it out.
 
accu35 said:
I agree with Charlie, its all about the SER. To much of a cold blast will hinder our chances at a winterstorm, but little ridge will help us. I know we dont lime the word "SER" but it can work in our favor as well if the cards are played right. Me personally, GFS has been strong on this storm for days now. Give it a few more days or so, and if its still showing then we can start our thread for it. Lets bring this Christmas storm
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I would gladly bring the magic again.
giphy.webp
 
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