I agree with this. I never mind seeing a -EPO set up. The problem is, when you get heights lagging in the SW, you sort of have a tendency for heights to pump in the SE, and you end up with this large, positively tilted longwave trough, like what the GFS series is depicting. I have observed through the years that Bastardi tends to excuse the warm models too frequently, in favor of one or two favorable indexes that would otherwise point to a cold pattern (kind of like this -EPO/Phase 8 regime, which by the way is a combo I like fine). In this case, I do think we see a period of SE ridging and a warm up, with a battle zone that sets up through the heartland and moves east with time...ASSUMING the MJO Phase 8 modeling is correct. I think it will be, but I am more confident about the -EPO.
The thing with the EPO that is somewhat frustrating is that while it does a great job as a cold delivery mechanism into the US, as well as allowing a general build-up of very cold air in Canada, the cold shots are often directed toward the upper plains and into the NE. We often end up with in and out cold shots. So the bottom line is, where a -EPO is definitely good, we still need very good timing with any energy that swings by. Also, with the general PV in eastern Canada, you have a tendency to see the "Lakes Low" machine really go to work as energy rotates around the PV and swings across the northern tier.
Anyway, I think many are going to be happy with how the pattern evolves during the last week of December/early January, insomuch as it provides some cold weather, along with storm tracking opportunities for at least portions of the SE. And if we can add a west-based -NAO into the mix, the eye of the needle gets a good deal bigger.
Great to have you back, by the way!
