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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Tarheel1 said:
How's temps looking for this possible event!
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Marginal... if that energy ejects out and there is some northern stream interaction it's doable. Small window of opportunty.
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That is some Crazy cold showing up for Central parts of the country. This might be a ridiculous question but what mechanisms are driving this SER Westward? Is it being modeled too strong, has it been modeled too strong so far this fall/early winter season?
 
Curse that awful SE ridge! It is even stronger on the 12Z GEFS vs earlier GEFS. :(
 
Brent said:
That cold in the plains looks fun lol
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That's the kind of cold that stays in the plains! :(. We don't get cold like that in the east and SE anymore! That could be highs in lower 20 in AR and Mo, while the Carolinas and GA, bask in 70s
 
Tarheel1 said:
That's the kind of cold that stays in the plains! :(. We don't get cold like that in the east and SE anymore! That could be highs in lower 20 in AR and Mo, while the Carolinas and GA, bask in 70s
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That’s one of those horrible sharp cut off cold spells I was talking about, I’m sure Arkansas will have highs in the 20’s with snow/ice while not super Far East I will be in the 70’s.
 
IF the 12Z GEFS were to be right (and I'm still hopeful it will be very wrong), poor Phil would have to suffer with a 587 dm 500 mb height on Christmas. What kind of Christmas is that? :(
 
GaWx said:
IF the 12Z GEFS were to be right (and I'm still hopeful it will be very wrong), poor Phil would have to suffer with a 587 dm 500 mb height on Christmas. What kind of Christmas is that? :(
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Not one, other than for nonsecular reasons ...
 
1300m said:
Not understanding the gloom over the long range guidance. I'm encouraged by it. Long range pattern fits in nicely with predicted MJO Phase 7 analogs for December. Which means the atmosphere is responding nicely to MJO forcings and not La Nina, which should weaken as we head into next year. If the MJO can make it to Phase 8, which guidance has been trending towards over the past few days but is still a long ways out, then there should be even better patterns ahead.

And what comes after Phase 7? Phase 8...

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January could be fun!
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Check out the EPS MJO prediction, which is usually more accurate than the GEFS. It actually has it going into phase 8 on 12/21 and then staying there through 12/26 as it weakens. There's not a much better position one could be in MJOwise than what the EPS shows. Keeping hope very much alive.
 
The SER is concerning as we know it. It makes it more concerning when other OP models and ENS models show the SER. But, since it's in the LR, I wouldn't worry about it too much. We can still have frozen precipitation, just not a higher chance for snow even if the SER does verify. Maybe some places will end up having sleet for a week! Lol.
 
1300m said:
I have been watching that also over the past few days and if my memory serves at least the past two days it has trended stronger into Phase 8 each run. If that verifies, many on here will be in the game for some wintry fun down the road.
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Hey neighbor. Glad to have you here.
 
GaWx said:
I apologize for assuming it was last January. My error. It turns out you did well after all as most of NC as well as parts of TN and N GA had a light wintry event after all on 1/17/16! Nice job!
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It was much more then a light winter event in Tennessee. Middle Tennessee had a large swath of 8-12 inches of snow during this time frame.
 
So, Bastardi is essentially saying that with the -EPO off the charts and MJO phase 8, the E US warmth is wrong. But how often does JB question cold on a model in winter? He always seems to question warmth. So, I've decided if I can get a little time to see how the SE has done in the past with severely -EPO while noting the MJO. If I'm not mistaken, the GEFS is predicting the EPO to drop to the -400 to -600 range in about 10 days. Is that correct?
 
Meanwhile the accuweather long range forecast gives the tennessee valley some hope of wintry precipitation around, near Christmas. Before or shortly after HA.
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GaWx said:
^Wow, I didn't realize that. Thanks for the info.
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No problem. I only know of it because it was the best single storm of my life. Sadly 12 inches of snow melted faster then I could have imagined as we got a quick warm up afterwards. But I guess those are the setups that bring big snows to the southeast.
 
olhausen said:
No problem. I only know of it because it was the best single storm of my life. Sadly 12 inches of snow melted faster then I could have imagined as we got a quick warm up afterwards. But I guess those are the setups that bring big snows to the southeast.
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The 6-12 inches melted about as quick as a typical 3-5 inch snow would... in about 3 days. But it made an otherwise very warm winter a pretty decent season. :)
 
Huge battle zone setting up on the eps. Wherever the arctic front sets up shop in and around Christmas it's gonna be bombs away with wintry precip with a SW flow. As it stands right now I'd be really excited if I lived in Arkansas back through Texas
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Storm5 said:
Huge battle zone setting up on the eps. Wherever the arctic front sets up shop in and around Christmas it's gonna be bombs away with wintry precip with a SW flow. As it stands right now I'd be really excited if I lived in Arkansas back through Texas
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Hour south of Memphis here, man I hope the SER retreats more in the extended.
 
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